Bias: Take care - back above 96.17 is required to confirm 96.79-97.23 - below 94.03-50 sees 92.91€¦
I had not expected to write a mixed report today. There are bullish divergences and price has not yet reached the targets I had mentioned - so there is still risk- but the wave structure of the decline has not been quite what I had expected€¦ Thus ensure that we see a reversal pattern in the 94.03-48 area before getting too bullish. A direct reversal back above 95.20 would assist and should then take price up through 95.54-82 towards the 96.17 high. However, if seen this should hold on first attempt. Next resistance at 96.79-23.
18th May: The signs are right for a bounce in terms of divergences so it's still possible but we'll need a break above 95.20 and more importantly 96.17 but the maximum retracement does look like being between 96.79 & 97.23...
Losses reached 94.72 on Friday and this morning we have seen just a few more pips down to 94.69. In terms of the short term wave structure the more ideal low now is at 94.47-52. If this breaks I shall get a little more concerned. While the next target is at 94.03 and another at 93.65, the way price has declined from 96.17 is causing me to feel that we could see direct follow-through in the MT downtrend... Thus breach of 94.47-53 will be the first sign and below 94.03 should extend losses through 93.65 to 92.91...
18th May: The MT downtrend continues with the only barrier to the downside around the 94.03-47 area. If we get a bounce it may not actually get back above 97.00. However, I am beginning to consider a direct break of 94.03 & 93.65 to reach 92.91 and then 91.90.
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