Bias: I suspect a pullback to somewhere between 93.47-76 before higher again
The 94.71 target was exceeded by 6 pips and from there we have seen a pullback and this should have just a little more to go. I suspect that we'll find a base somewhere in the 93.47-76 area so look for a bullish reversal pattern there. A move back above 94.22 will confirm a move back to around yesterday's 91.77 high but shouldn't break on first test. Though it probably won't happen today the eventual upside target is at 95.30 at least with a chance of seeing 96.15.
16th July: Surprisingly we did see break above 93.93 and this triggered follow-through which should reach 94.71-97 minimum. Anywhere above this area then signals tests of 95.30-55 and 96.15. Above there is the 96.97 swing high.
The correction from the 94.77 high is not too far off completion I feel. There is support at 93.40-47 and this should cause a reversal higher. The only way I see any chance of a modestly stronger bearish stance is if the recovery from 93.40-47 cannot make it above 93.85-90. If this occurs and we see a break below 93.40-47 then watch for a test of the 93.00-10 area which I feel would then hold for another attempt higher. Thus only below 93.00 would trigger follow-through to 92.46 and 91.74 again.
16th July: I still feel the downside is the weaker although I do see an alternative complex correction. We'll take this step by step and wait to see what happens at 94.71-97 and whether it can break below 92.70€¦ If so the 91.74 low could be retested.
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