Bias: I expect the day to end lower but while 94.12 supports the initial risk is for a test of the 94.90-95.20 resistance
No break of 93.32 and a solid recovery back above 94.55. Be aware that having achieved this new high there is a strong risk of reversal lower at any time. However, while support at 94.12-18 remains intact I feel the immediate risk is higher back to 94.70 and after a correction to the 94.90-95.20 resistance area. This should cap. Thus, any stronger bullish stance would require a break above 95.20 which, if seen, would accelerate the rally through 95.46-56 and 96.32 and back to the 96.74 corrective high at least.
19th August: Only a recovery above the 95.28-34 area is going to bring any relief to the bearish move and only if seen would I look for a reversal back towards the 97.78 high.
Basically I feel that we should be on the lookout for a bearish reversal pattern right from the start today as price has done enough to satisfy the correction now. However,I will go with the favored view that we'll see the 94.90-95.20 resistance but this will provoke the expected reversal lower. While this rally is possible the 94.12-18 support must hold. Thus from 94.90-95.20 or a direct breach of 94.12 look for losses to resume back through Friday's 93.41 low and onto 93.05, 92.42 and then to the 92.03 target. I expect a bounce there but do also note the 91.74 low.
19th August: The 95.28-34 area now acts as the reversal but more likely we're going to continue to see losses, initially to around 93.75 and after a correction to 92.03 where a larger pullback is possible but still within a bearish structure.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.