Bias: I feel either 97.00 will cap or a second test of 97.42 to extend losses to 95.35-85 (max 95.04)
Short term we have to take a little care. I suspect that the 97.00 level may well hold to generate losses. However, there is also an equal risk of a second rally to 97.42-79 before the next leg lower. Thus the areas I feel should spark any stronger move higher will be at the 95.35-50 downside target (max 95.04) or an earlier break above 98.26. If this latter is seen then I'd expect extension to 98.61 minimum and probably 99.00. At this point I'd be cautious. Only breach of 99.00 would take us back to 99.74 and above...
27th April: Losses seen on Friday and I suspect today. This should mean we can lower our reversal area to around 99.00 and if I'm right about seeing 95.35-50 later today then we'll probably be able to lower it further to 98.60-00 tomorrow.
Losses have developed and this further encourages the larger bearish move. However, I do feel we're close to the end of this particular stage of the decline. There are two way to interpret the second low this morning at 96.61 and this either means we shall see 97.00 cap for losses or possibly we'll see a move up to 97.42-79 before the decline. Overall the downside target appears to be slightly below the 95.95 swing low around 95.35-85 (max 95.04.) A break below 96.61 confirms. Expect a stronger pullback from the target.
20th April: Tentatively I still feel this is on course for the 95.95 low. As long as we see break below 98.42 today then the next modest correction should be from 97.09, while it remains below 98.00-25 the interim MT target is around 95.95.
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