Bias: The underlying direction is higher but there does seem to be a risk of a pullback first
The last update highlighted the 91.30-56 area as resistance and this was actually reached this morning. Indeed, I see a range of resistance levels that should restrain any bullish attempts today. These resistance lie at the 91.30-56 levels as suggested while there is a small risk of resistance at 91.73. Thus any stronger bullish stance will require breach of 91.75 to maintain the upward progress more directly through 92.25 and to 92.67-73 at least. This should provide a correction if seen. Larger resistance is seen at 93.83.
2nd January: No change to the near term resistance at 91.30-56 followed by 93.90. Thus only look for stronger gains on a break above 94.00 which would maintain choppy gains towards 96.54.
The peak at 91.30 this morning is interesting and does seem to point to the risk of a correction to the rally from the 87.12 low. There is support at 90.48-70 and if this breaks then expect the downside to prove to be the more vulnerable. Minor support lies around 90.15-15 and a corrective low at 89.75. Breach should maintain the downward momentum for 89.21 and 88.51-59.
2nd January: There does appear to be some risk of a pullback to the 89.21 support at least and potentially the 88.51-59 area. However, beyond there would begin to raise the risk of losses to the 87.12 low. Breach opens the abyss to stronger losses.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The 91.30 resistance was implied by a wave equality target in a minor Wave c and this should therefore suggest we should get a pullback. A 50% retracement lies at 89.21 and a 66.7% at 88.51. The question is whether this morning's high was a Wave i of Wave efc or whether it will produce a Wave x within a complex correction in (alternative) Wave (b) of Wave (iii).
Note that the 50% retracement in (alternative) Wave (b) lies at 93.84 and this is expected to force a correction if seen. If we see a direct break higher then in addition to the 93.84 resistance there is potential for a Wave iii at 95.07 or more likely 96.54. This I shall have to firm up only if we see a direct rally.
Thus it would be best to observe today's action and probably Monday's to establish a greater idea of what it happening. Any direct loss of the 87.12 low would imply more aggressive losses…