Bias: Initially the 98.20-00 area should see consolidation - then work with breaks - I think lower
Yesterday's losses stalled at 97.93 and promptly provoked a correction to 99.20. The deep pullback to 98.20 followed by strength is looking more as if we're seeing a triangle develop and thus should mean the 98.20-00 area is likely to contain trading initially. Clearly, for the upside to push through we shall need a break above 99.00-20. If seen price should follow-through to 99.57-74 at least and then there is more risk of extension to 100.21. Take care as this could cause a pullback. Next resistance is at 100.74 and then the 101.43 high.
7th May: If we are to see any gains above 101.43 then we're going to need a break above 99.20 -57 to extend through 100.20 and up to 101.43. If this occurs, there should be a correction but the ultimate target is in the 104.50-106.50 area.
The losses stalled much earlier than expected from where we saw a sharp recovery. I feel the correction lower from 99.20 is more in keeping with a bearish structure but still the short term is likely to see a 98.20-00 triangle. As long as this break lower then we should see a return to 97.93 initially and then further below 97.60 and to 997.13 where there may be a brief correction. Overall this could reach as low as the 96.54-70 area en route the 95.61 low. However, I do feel this will need until tomorrow to develop.
7th May: The decline hasn't occurred quite as expected and we now have a short term barrier at 98.20 but as long as this and the 97.93 low breaks I feel the 95.61 low is achievable.
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