Bias: Watching for breaks - the 87.10-40 area now critical support and 89.38 important for the upside
This keeps pushing lower against my preference and seems destined to reach the 87.10-40 area and possibly 86.79. Take note of momentum readings at that point. As mentioned yesterday, we are going to need both hourly and 4-hour charts to be displaying bullish divergences at that point to retain any chance of this staging a larger recovery. Thus, take care and look for a bullish reversal pattern there. Only an earlier recovery that pushes above the 88.48-70 pivot areas will bring any more direct relief. Even then before I can even begin thinking about strength here we'll need a break above yesterday's 89.38 corrective high... If seen it could generate follow-through back to the 90.40 high.
8th October: While I do see a cycle low due any time I feel we're going to need a break above 89.38 and 90.40 to break the bearish sequence now and until that occurs we should watch 87.10-40 as potential support but then not until 85.20-48.
Very clearly each correction fails to move to new highs and this is keeping the downtrend in place. While 88.48-70 caps these losses can continue below yesterday's 88.00 low and probably extend the losses to 87.40 at least and possibly 87.10. I suspect we shall see a reaction higher once again in this area so watch for bullish reversal patterns. If it breaks then consider the 86.79 support. If this is seen then the implication will still be a corrective recovery only.
8th October: There seems to be little point in fighting the downtrend until there is some stronger sign of reversal. Until then watch 87.10-40 and 86.75 as probable support for a correction. Further out, especially if we see 86.79 first, there is support at 85.20-48 but then not until 84.47.
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