CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 6th January (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was stronger against almost all currencies except the Yen as weak housing data tempered the risk appetite of the market. November Pending Home Sales -16% vs. -2% m/m forecast. November Factory Orders at 1.1% vs. 0.5% forecast. DJIA -11 points closing at 10572, S&P +3 points closing at 1136 and NASDAQ +0.3 points closing at 2308. Looking ahead, December ADP Employment forecast at -73k vs. -169k previously. December ISM Non Manufacturing forecast at 50.5 vs. 38.7 previously. December FOMC minutes released.

The Euro (EUR) made fresh multi-week highs above resistance at 1.4450 before running out of steam once again in the US session. German Unemployment Change was -3k vs. 5k forecast and the Unemployment Rate remained at 8.1%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4344 and a high of 1.4486 before closing at 1.4360. Looking ahead, December PMI services are forecast at 53.7 vs. 53 previously. November PPI forecast at 0.2% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a strong day across the board as the USD/JPY tested the downside after a strong rally over the previous two weeks. A drop in US bond Yields and the resignation of the Finance Minister Fujii due to bad health were the main stories of the day. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.24 and a high of 92.54 before closing the day around 91.70 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) fell aggressively as the market focused on the UK debt outlook in 2010 and possibility of rating downgrades. EUR/GBP traded briefly above 0.9000 and GBP/AUD briefly below 1.7500 both key levels. On the Cable the 1.6000 provided some minor support but the bounce was limited and the pair remained under pressure. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5964 and a high of 1.6156 before closing the day at 1.6005 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December PMI Services forecast at 56.6 vs. 56.6 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) made small fresh 2010 highs at 0.9176 before falling back with the rest of the market in the US session. AUD/JPY profit taking was the main culprit as the pair slipped form 84.50 to 83.40. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9091 and a high of 0.9176 before closing the US session at 0.9120. UPDATE November Building Permits +5.9% vs. +3% previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) remained well supported on dips but struggled to push higher. Overall trading with a low of USD$1115 and high of USD$1129 before ending the New York session at USD$1118 an ounce. Cold Global Weather helped Oil remain on a bullish footing. Crude Oil was up $0.26 ending the New York session at $81.77.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

       

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4218

1.4258

1.4350

1.4591

1.4685

USD/JPY

91.00

91.26

91.60

93.22

93.30

GBP/USD

1.5833

1.5966

1.5970

1.6241

1.6248

AUD/USD

0.8902

0.8939

0.9120

0.9195

0.9323

XAU/USD

1086.00

1093

1120.00

1141

1147.00

OIL/USD

79.10

80.00

81.50

82.00

85.00

Euro - 1.4350

Initial support at 1.4258 (Jan 4 low) followed by 1.4218 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4591 (Dec 16 high) followed by 1.4685 (Dec 14 low)

Yen - 91.60

Initial support is located at 91.26 (Jan 5 low) followed by 91.00 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.22 (Jan 4 high) followed by 93.3 (Dec 18 High).

Pound - 1.5970

Initial support at 1.5966 (Jan 5 low) followed by 1.5833 (Dec 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6241 (Jan 4 high) followed by 1.6248 (Dec 18 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9120

Initial support at 0.8939 (Jan 4 low) followed by the 0.8902 (Dec 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9195 (Dec 11 high) followed by 0.9323 (Dec 3 high).

Gold - 1120

Initial support at 1093 (Jan 4 low) followed by 1086 (Dec 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1141 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1147 (Dec 9 high).

Oil - 81.50

Initial support at 80 (Major level) followed by 79.10 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (November 2009 High) followed by 85 (Major level).

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