CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 16th September (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was sold against everything except the Yen and Pound as US stocks soared to fresh year highs on strong Retail Sales and promising comments from Fed Chief Bernanke. Bernanke commented the recession is 'probably over' for the first time. August Retail Sales were +2.7% vs. 2.0% previously. August PPI jumped 1.7% vs. 0.8% expected at higher energy costs seeped though the economy. Crude Oil up $2.07 closing at $70.93. In US Stocks, DJIA + points closing at 9683, S&P +3 points closing at 1052 and NASDAQ +10 points closing at 2102. Looking ahead, August CPI forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.0% previously. August Industrial Output forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.5%.

The Euro (EUR) pushed lower on USD strength immediately after the release of the US data but the strength of US stocks saw the market once again aggressively sell the Dollar. The Euro traded up towards 1.4700 but failed to test the level. September German ZEW survey forecast at 60 only increased to 57 vs. 56 previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4562 and a high of 1.4686 before closing at 1.4670. Looking ahead, August EU Inflation forecast at 0.3% vs. -0.7% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to be sold off against most currencies as the market increased risk appetite and USD/JPY managed to test 91.50. The Failure to break this key resistance gave the sellers the upper hand for the rest of the day and USD/JPY moved back down to 91 support. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.83 and a high of 91.65 before closing the day around 91.05 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Tankan previously at -42.

The Sterling (GBP) was the exception yesterday as Governor King commented on the possibility of cutting the interest paid on excess bank reserves. The market sold the pound aggressively after the comments hit the wires and trumped positive data released earlier in the day. August CPI +0.4% vs. 0.0% previously. EUR/GBP broke higher to fresh multi-month highs near 0.8900. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6403 and a high of 1.6661 before closing the day at 1.6500 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August Claimant Count forecast at 25k vs. 24.9k previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell after RBA minutes failed to provide the market with the hawkish comments it was looking for but once again the dips were small and the positive US session saw the pair grind back to the mid 0.8600 levels. The Oil and Gold move higher also underpinned AUD strength. GBP/AUD moved towards 1.9000 supports. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8564 and a high of 0.8647 before closing the US session at 0.8630.

Gold (XAU) broke above $1000 on broad USD weakness and fresh inflation concerns prompted by high UK and US PPI. Overall trading with a low of USD$992 and high of USD$1009 before ending the New York session at USD$1007 an ounce.





TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4287

1.4467

1.4675

1.4719

1.4768

USD/JPY

89.71

90.21

90.85

92.60

93.30

GBP/USD

1.6237

1.6323

1.6505

1.6742

1.6831

AUD/USD

0.8379

0.8507

0.8645

0.8694

0.8813

XAU/USD

974.00

982.00

1007.00

1011.00

1032.00


Euro - 1.4675
Initial support at 1.4467 (Sept 9 low) followed by 1.4287 (Sept 7 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4719 (Dec 18 high) followed by 1.4768 (Sept 25 2008 high)

Yen - 90.85
Initial support is located at 90.21 (Sept 11 low) followed by 89.71 (February 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.60 (Sept 9 high) followed by 93.3 (Sept 7 high).

Pound - 1.6505
Initial support at 1.6323 (Sept 8 low) followed by 1.6237 (Sept 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6742 (Sept 11 high) followed by 1.6831 (Aug 7 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.8645
Initial support at 0.8507 (Sept 7 low) followed by the 0.8379 (Sept 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8694 (Aug 28 2008 high) followed by 0.8813 (AUG 22 2008 high).

Gold - 1007
Initial support at 982 (Sept 10 low) followed by 974 (Sep 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1011 (Sept 11 high) followed by 1032 (Mar 17' 2008 high).