CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 19th October (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained for the first time during the week as US stocks came off year highs. Bank of America led the market lower after disappointing Q3 Earnings. October University of Michigan fell to 69.4 vs. 73.5 previously. US Industrial Production rose 0.7% in September. In US Stocks, DJIA -67 points closing at 9995, S&P -9 points closing at 1087 and NASDAQ -16 points closing at 2156. Looking ahead, FED Chairman Bernanke speaks.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro topped out at 1.4950 and fell back to supports at 1.4850 before staging a minor recovery into the close. EU Trade Balance was 1bn vs. 5.1bn forecast. EUR/JPY tracked the major lower but the big move was seen on the EUR/GBP which continued to slump on a Pound resurgence. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4850 and a high of 1.4967 before closing at 1.4905.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) consolidated losses with the stock market pulling back supporting the Yen. GBP/JPY buying continued although selling above 149 Yen contained. AUD/JPY pulled back after 10 days of rallies. USD/JPY struggled above 91 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.60 and a high of 91.33 before closing the day around 90.85 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ Minutes released.

The Sterling (GBP) continued to rebound across the board as crosses helped lift the major higher. GBP/JPY buying and EUR/GBP selling the major source of support. 1.6400 capped in the European session and weak US stocks prompted profit taking. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6250 and a high of 1.6400 before closing the day at 1.6350 in the New York session. UPDATE October Rightmove HPI at 2.8% vs. 0.6% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tapped out above 0.9250 before falling steeply with US stocks prompting heavy profit taking. GBP/AUD continued to rally impressively from 25 year lows recently. AUD/NZD continues to get support on dips as the market focuses on differing rate outlooks. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9130 and a high of 0.9272 before closing the US session at 0.9170.

Oil & Gold (XAU) continued to suffer from heavy profit taking for a second day but found support at $1045 to finish above $1050. Overall trading with a low of USD$1043 and high of USD$1057 before ending the New York session at USD$1053 an ounce. Extended gains as the market remained extremely bullish shrugging off stock market weakness. Crude Oil was up $0.95 ending the New York session at $78.50.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY


Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4674

1.4839

1.4850

1.4980

1.5000

USD/JPY

88.84

89.24

90.85

91.63

92.53

GBP/USD

1.5903

1.6252

1.6300

1.6468

1.6568

AUD/USD

0.8866

0.8985

0.9120

0.8347

0.9476

XAU/USD

1015.00

1036

1049.00

1070.00

1100.00

OIL/USD

75.22

76.45

78.40

78.70

80.00




Euro - 1.4850
Initial support at 1.4839 (Oct 14 low) followed by 1.4674 (Oct 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4980 (Aug 13 high) followed by 1.5000 (Psychological Level)

Yen - 90.85
Initial support is located at 89.28 (Oct 16 low) followed by 88.84 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.63 (Sept 13 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high).

Pound - 1.6300
Initial support at 1.6252 (Sept 28 low) followed by 1.5903 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6468 (Sept 23 high) followed by 1.6568 (Sept 23 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9120
Initial support at 0.8985 (Oct 12 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9347 (Aug 4 08 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 08 high).

Gold - 1049
Initial support at 1036 (Oct 7 low) followed by 1015 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1070 (Oct 14 high) followed by 1100 (Psychological level).

Oil - 78.40
Initial support at 76.45 (Fib Support) followed by 75.22 (Previous Support). Initial resistance is now at 78.70 (Fib Resistance) followed by 80 (Major level).