CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 24th July (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened after being under pressure for most of the day as some poor results after hours from Microsoft led to a sharp pullback in the majors. USD/JPY tracked stocks higher and was able to retain the strength. June Existing Home Sales were better than expectations at 4.89M vs. 4.82m forecast. Weekly Jobless claims were at 554K vs. 522k previously. In US share markets, S&P ended +22.22 points (+2.33%) at 976.29, NASDAQ ended +47.22 points (+2.45%) at 1973.60 and DOW JONES ended +188 points (2.12%) at 9069. Looking ahead, UoM June Consumer Confidence forecast at 65.1 vs. 64.6 initial.
The Euro (EUR) made new month highs at the height of the Equity rally before slumping hard into the close to make a new daily low. EU Current Account at -13Bn vs. -9.2Bn previous. The outlook is mixed with the topside failure leading some analyst to call for a test of 1.4000 supports before attempting to test the year highs of 1.4338 again. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4118 and a high of 1.4293 before closing at 1.4150. Looking ahead, July German IFO forecast at 86.5 vs. 85.9 previously. Also Released EU PMI Services are forecast at 45.1 vs. 44.7 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold aggressively for most of the day as the USD gained the upper hand with the break above 9000 on the DOW and the break above 95 Yen. The pair is looking very strong after the failure on the downside at 93.20 and the improving investor sentiment likely to help crosses rally. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.57 and a high of 95.31 before closing the day around 95.05 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) broke above 1.6500 and was volatile above as USD strength and lingering UK fears kept price action mixed. GBP/JPY supported in Asia and EUR/GBP selling during the rest of the day. UK June Retail Sales at 1.2% were much stronger than expectations of 0.4%. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6431 and a high of 1.6589 before closing the day at 1.6510 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Preliminary GDP Q2 forecast at -0.3% vs. -2.4%.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) made new highs above 0.8200 before sharply pulling back with USD strength on FED Fischer's comments that the US may not have to spend all money set aside in the QE program. AUD/JPY buying for most of the day saw near 2 Yen gains. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8106 and a high of 0.8226 before closing the US session at 0.8135.
Gold (XAU) respected the recent range although it was volatile tracking movements in the EURO. Overall trading with a low of USD$945 and high of USD$958 before ending the New York session at USD$949 an ounce.
|Currency||Sup 2||Sup 1||Spot||Res 1||Res 2|
Euro - 1.4160
Initial support at 1.4120 (Jul 23 low) followed by 1.4056 (Jul 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4291 (Jun 23 high) followed by 1.4338 (Jun 3 high)
Yen - 95.10
Initial support is located at 93.10 (Jul 22 low) followed by 92.72 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.46 (Jul 7 high) followed by 96.24 (July 6 high).
Pound - 1.6510
Initial support at 1.6311 (July 22 low) followed by 1.6266 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6558 (Jun 20 high) followed by 1.6745 (June 30 high).
Australian Dollar - 0.8140
Initial support at 0.8090 (July 15 low) followed by the 0.7925 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8237 (June 11 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).
Gold - 949
Initial support at 932 (Jul 17 low) followed by 918 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (June 10 high) followed by 990 (Jun 3 high).