CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 21st October (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD was on the back foot in Asia as hawkish RBA comments sent AUD and EURO to fresh highs. Weak US stocks on the back of disappointing Housing Starts at 0.59m vs. 0.61m forecast. The USD gained as equities fell but Q3 Earnings were very strong in general so dips may prove short lived. In US Stocks, DJIA -50 points closing at 10041, S&P -6 points closing at 1091 and NASDAQ -19 points closing at 2163. Looking ahead, Crude Oil Inventories is forecast at 0.9m vs. 0.4m previously.

The Euro (EUR) failed to take out the key Psychological level of 1.5000 in Asia and as the Stock mood darkened the pair slipped back below 1.4900 briefly where it found solid support. German PPI fell -0.5% vs. -0.1% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4883 and a high of 1.4995 before closing at 1.4930.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the Dollar and most pairs as risk aversion ticked higher and the market took profit on recent longs. USD/JPY slipped lower in Asia on comments from FinMin Fujii that the USD weakness is due to the easy monetary policy. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.08 and a high of 91.07 before closing the day around 90.70 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) had another volatile day although it was in a relatively tight range for the Pound. Strength at the start of European session was reversed as news of a major sale of Barclay shares from Qatar did the rounds. September Public Sector Net Borrowing forecast at 15.3bn came in at 14.81bn slightly better. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6329 and a high of 1.6489 before closing the day at 1.6360 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October BoE Minutes forecast at 9-0.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke above 0.9300 on the back of hawkish comments from the RBA meeting in October where they justified raising rates from 3% to 3.25%. The market though was overcome from larger forces later in the day and follow the Euro lower before bouncing into the US close to Finnish on a strong footing. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9183 and a high of 0.9313 before closing the US session at 0.9230.

Oil & Gold (XAU) followed the USD movement, weakening on the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1052 and high of USD$1067 before ending the New York session at USD$1055 an ounce. Oil pushed higher above $80 a barrel briefly before falling heavily in the US session. Crude Oil was down $0.52 ending the New York session at $79.09.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4762

1.4829

1.4940

1.5000

1.5083

USD/JPY

88.84

89.28

90.70

91.63

92.53

GBP/USD

1.6126

1.6241

1.6390

1.6568

1.6742

AUD/USD

0.8985

0.9113

0.9240

0.9347

0.9476

XAU/USD

1036.00

1043

1056.00

1070.00

1100.00

OIL/USD

77.28

78.00

78.80

80.00

80.70


Euro - 1.4940
Initial support at 1.4829 (Oct 19 low) followed by 1.4762 (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5000 (Psychological Round Number) followed by 1.5083 (Psychological Level)

Yen - 90.70
Initial support is located at 89.28 (Oct 15 low) followed by 88.84 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.63 (Sept 24 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high).

Pound - 1.6390
Initial support at 1.6241 (Oct 19 low) followed by 1.6126 (Sept 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6568 (Sept 17 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9240
Initial support at 0.9113 (Oct 19 low) followed by the 0.8985 (Oct 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9347 (Aug 4 08 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 08 high).

Gold - 1056
Initial support at 1043 (Oct 16 low) followed by 1036 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1070 (Oct 14 high) followed by 1100 (Psychological level).

Oil - 78.80
Initial support at 78 (Previous support) followed by 77.28 (Previous Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.0 (Major level) followed by 80.70 (Fib Projection).