CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 27th July (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) bouts of profit taking capped a week of heavy gains for Equity markets and helped limit FX movements on Friday. UoM June Consumer Confidence was revised higher to 66 vs. 65.1 forecast. Crude Oil ended $0.89 higher to close at $68.05. In US share markets, S&P ended +2.97 points (+0.30%) at 979.26, NASDAQ ended -7.63 points (-0.39%) at 1965.96 and DOW JONES ended +23.95 points (+0.26%) at 9093. Looking ahead, New Home Sales in June forecast at 0.36M vs. 0.342M.

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.4250 once again before falling back to 1.4200 supports in a quiet end to the week. German IFO improved to 87.3 vs. 86.5 forecast and 85.9 previously in a slight improvement in Economic sentiment. July EU PMI Services slightly better than expected at 45.6 vs. 44.7 previously and PMI manufacturing at 46.0 vs. 42.6 previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4135 and a high of 1.4254 before closing at 1.4205. Looking ahead, German GFK forecast at 2.9% in August. June Import forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.0%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) consolidated the gains seen on Friday and slipped back below 95, holding in a tight range the rest of the day. Crosses remain buoyant and continued to be bought on dips as Japanese investors searched for greater yield. Traders will be looking to US stocks for further direction expecting the two weeks of solid gains come under scrutiny this week. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.60 and a high of 95.18 before closing the day around 94.80 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) fell hard after preliminary Q2 GDP came in at -0.8% vs. -0.3% forecast. Support under 1.5400 held firm and the pair managed a small rally with US stocks. EUR/GBP managed to gain as the Eurozone data propped the single currency. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6390 and a high of 1.6545 before closing the day at 1.6430 in the New York session. UPDATE - Hometrack: UK July House Prices 0.0% On Mo, -7.7% On Yr.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support in the lower 0.8100 and once again ground higher for the rest of the day with dips being bought. AUD/JPY is providing solid support as it tries to gather for a retest of year highs above 80 yen. Some forward looking market commentators are starting to suggest the RBA will be the first central bank to raise rates and this speculation should support the AUD against all crosses going forward. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8125 and a high of 0.8190 before closing the US session at 0.8175.

Gold (XAU) was quiet pivoting the $950 level waiting for fresh direction. Overall trading with a low of USD$948 and high of USD$954 before ending the New York session at USD$950 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4056

1.4120

1.4180

1.4291

1.4338

USD/JPY

92.72

93.10

94.85

95.46

96.24

GBP/USD

1.6266

1.6311

1.6400

1.6586

1.6745

AUD/USD

0.7925

0.8090

0.8165

0.8237

0.8263

XAU/USD

918.00

932.00

949.00

965.00

990.00




Euro - 1.4180
Initial support at 1.4120 (Jul 23 low) followed by 1.4056 (Jul 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4291 (Jun 23 high) followed by 1.4338 (Jun 3 high)

Yen - 94.85
Initial support is located at 93.10 (Jul 22 low) followed by 92.72 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.46 (Jul 7 high) followed by 96.24 (July 6 high).

Pound - 1.6400
Initial support at 1.6311 (July 22 low) followed by 1.6266 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6558 (Jun 20 high) followed by 1.6745 (June 30 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.8165
Initial support at 0.8090 (July 15 low) followed by the 0.7925 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8237 (June 11 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold - 949
Initial support at 932 (Jul 17 low) followed by 918 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (June 10 high) followed by 990 (Jun 3 high).