CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 3rd August (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) better than expected Q2 GDP helped buoy Oil and Global Equity markets to finish the week strong at the expense of the USD. Q2 GDP at -1.0% vs. -1.5%. US July Chicago PMI jumped to 43.4 vs. 39.9 previously. GDP numbers showed the US economy is stabilizing. Crude Oil ended up $2.51 to close at $69.45. In US share markets, S&P ended +1 points (0.07%) at 987, NASDAQ ended -5.8 points (0.84%) at 1978 and DOW JONES ended +17 points (0.2%) at 9171. Looking ahead, July ISM Manufacturing is forecast at 56.5 vs. 44.8 previously.

The Euro (EUR) broke above 1.4100 in Asia and consolidated above this level before reacting to risk appetite on strong US data and surging Oil. 1.4300 was tested twice last week and will provide significant resistance on route to 1.4338 year highs. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4065 and a high of 1.4280 before closing at 1.4253. Looking ahead, German Retail Sales forecast at 0.3% in June vs. -1.3% previously. July PMI Manufacturing(Final) forecast to remain at 45.2.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was weaker after US data induced Yen selling especially against risk currencies of AUD and GBP. USD/JPY actually slipped lower as USD came under broad selling pressure. June Unemployment jumped to 5.4% vs. 5.2% previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 94.51 and a high of 95.84 before closing the day around 94.80 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke out of the recent range to the upside breaking resistance at 1.6550-1.6600 to trade to just under Year highs at above 1.6700. The GBP is receiving a lot of support form improved risk sentiment and strong oil as well as crosses such as GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6468 and a high of 1.6732 before closing the day at 1.6698 in the New York session. Looking ahead, UK PMI forecast in July at 47.7 vs. 47 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke to fresh year highs as the majors moved and commodities surged on broad USD weakness. AUD/JPY expressed improved risk sentiment trading up to just under the key 80 Yen level. Gold rallied over $20 an ounce. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8239 and a high of 0.8348 before closing the US session at 0.8363. Looking ahead, June Retail Sales forecast at 0.5% vs. 1.0%.

Gold (XAU) broke as USD slid and Oil broke higher. Overall trading with a low of USD$932 and high of USD$957 before ending the New York session at USD$954 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3833

1.4008

1.4250

1.4304

1.4338

USD/JPY

93.10

94.02

94.75

96.24

97.19

GBP/USD

1.6266

1.6311

1.6735

1.6745

1.7000

AUD/USD

0.8090

0.8126

0.8375

0.8378

0.8519

XAU/USD

918.00

925.00

954.00

958.00

965.00


Euro - 1.4250
Initial support at 1.4008 (Jul 29 low) followed by 1.3833 (Jul 8 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4304 (Jul 28 high) followed by 1.4338 (June 3 high)

Yen - 94.75
Initial support is located at 94.02 (Jul 29 low) followed by 93.10 (July 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.24 (Jul 6 high) followed by 97.19 (June 19 high).

Pound - 1.6735
Initial support at 1.6311 (July 22 low) followed by 1.6266 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6745 (Jun 30 high) followed by 1.7000 (Big Figure).

Australian Dollar - 0.8375
Initial support at 0.8126 (July 29 low) followed by the 0.8090 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8378 (Sept 26 high) followed by 0.8519 (Sept 22 low).

Gold - 954
Initial support at 925 (July 29 low) followed by 918 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 958 (July 958 high) followed by 965 (June 10 high).