CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 30th September (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained as Officials in Japan and the European Union continued to support the Dollar and traders took risk off the table as US consumer data sparked fresh concerns. September Consumer Confidence slipped to 53.1 vs. 57 forecast and 54.5 previously. July Case Shiller forecast at 0.5% came in strong at 1.6% m/m but was unable to help market sentiment. In US Stocks, DJIA -47 points closing at 9742, S&P -2 points closing at 1060 and NASDAQ -6 points closing at 2124. Looking ahead, Q2 Final GDP is forecast at -1.2% vs. -1.0% initial. September ADP Employment forecast at -210k vs. -298k previously.

The Euro (EUR) struggleg to capitalize on strong Asian stocks as sellers into the 1.4650 area capped gains and when US stocks turned negative the pair fell to supports at 1.4550. EUR/JPY performed well but the big move was on the EUR/GBP which continue to pull back after recently rallying. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4528 and a high of 1.4647 before closing at 1.4585. Looking ahead, September German Unemployment Rate forecast at 8.4% vs. 8.3% previously. September EU inflation forecast at -0.2% y/y.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the recovery continued on the USD/JPY as the tone of statements out of Japan grew more dollar supportive and Intervention talk floated around the market. Resistance above 90 is proving stiff but the pair closed above the key figure. GBP/JPY was volatile as the major whipped around. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.63 and a high of 90.37 before closing the day around 90.15 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August Industrial Output forecast at 1.9% vs. 2.1% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) fell heading into GBP data which was mixed but then found support as comments filtered out of the BOE economic conference that it was unhappy with the markets interpretation of recent comments from BOE Governor King. Q2 GDP was revised to -0.6% vs. -0.7% and September CBI distributive trades were +3 vs. -14 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5825 and a high of 1.5990 before closing the day at 1.5960 in the New York session. Looking ahead, MPC Member Miles speaks.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) waxed and waned with investor sentiment being very strong in Asia before pulling back on Euro weakness and US stocks losses. Continued rate kike speculation are underpinning the pair which is making solid gains against most crosses lately as the economy voted most likely to raise rates first. AUD/NZD continued to recover closing above 1.22. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8676 and a high of 0.8764 before closing the US session at 0.8710. Looking ahead, August Retail Sales forecast at 0.5% vs. -1%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) bounced off $985 supports after the USD strengthened ending unchanged on the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$985 and high of USD$996 before ending the New York session at USD$991 an ounce. Whipped around between $67 and $66 a barrel but finished under the $67 level ahead of Wednesday's US Inventory data. Crude Oil was down $0.13 ending the New York session at $66.71.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY


Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4467

1.4516

1.4585

1.4725

1.4844

USD/JPY

87.99

88.24

90.10

91.63

92.53

GBP/USD

1.5691

1.5771

1.5950

1.6067

1.6207

AUD/USD

0.8529

0.8587

0.8710

0.8789

0.8814

XAU/USD

974.00

982.00

992.00

999.00

1020.00

OIL/USD

65.50

66.25

66.60

67.50

68.00


Euro - 1.4585
Initial support at 1.4515 (Sept 14 low) followed by 1.4467 (Sept 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4725 (Sept 25 high) followed by 1.4844 (September 23 high)

Yen - 90.10
Initial support is located at 88.24 (Sept 28 low) followed by 87.99 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.63 (Sept 24 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high).

Pound - 1.5950
Initial support at 1.5771 (Sept 28 low) followed by 1.5691 (38.2% retrace 1.3503 - 1.7043). Initial resistance is now at 1.6067 (Sept 25 high) followed by 1.6207 (38.2% retrace 1.3503 - 1.7043).

Australian Dollar - 0.8710
Initial support at 0.8587 (Sept 28 low) followed by the 0.8529 (Sept 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8789 (Sept 23 high) followed by 0.8814 (Aug 22 '08 high).

Gold - 992
Initial support at 982 (Sept 10 low) followed by 974 (Sept 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 999 (Sept 25 high) followed by 1020 (September 22 high).

Oil - 66.50
Initial support at 66.25 (Fib Support) followed by 65.50 (Fib Support). Initial resistance is now at 67.50 (Fib Resistance) followed by 68 (Fib Resistance).