USD/CAD's fall from 1.2765 resumes in early US session and dives to as low as 1.2024 so far. Break of 1.2104 support indicate that rebound from 1.1761 has completed. Further decline is now in favor to this 1.1761 low first. Also, note that consolidation from 1.3015 is still in progress and deeper decline might be seen to retest 1.1464 support. On the upside, above 1.2330 is needed to indicate fall from 1.2765 has completed. Otherwise, further fall is now in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of completion of medium term up trend from 0.9056 yet. Such rise is expected to be developing into a five wave sequence (1.0378, 0.9823, 1.3015, ......). Consolidation from 1.3015 is treated as the fourth wave consolidation. Failure below 1.3005 suggests that such consolidation is still in progress and a test of 1.1464 support could be seen before completion. On the upside, note that decisive break of 1.3005/15 will confirm medium term up trend resumption and should then target 61.8% retracement of 1.6196 to 0.9056 at 1.3469.