EURUSD: Trapped In A Channel With Downside Bias.

EURUSD : EUR failed to follow through to the upside on its Monday recovery gains, and its Tuesday downturn in momentum now opens the door for lower prices. With an established falling channel now in place, weakness should shape towards the 1.3113 level, its Mar 30'09 low and the 1.3097/93 area, its Feb 09'09 high/.50 Ret (1.2456-1.3738 rally) with a decline through the latter accelerating further downside towards the 1.2991 level, its Feb 23'09 high. Its daily RSI is negative and trending lower suggesting further weakness. Immediate resistance lies at the 1.3330 level, its Jan 27'09 high with a turn above there putting the next upside target at its falling channel top at 1.2470.This level is within the vicinity of the pair ‘s daily 200 ema at 1.2488.While we envisage that initial attempt at these levels should fail, a break through there will call for additional upside aiming at the 1.3580 level, its April 06'09 high and then its Mar 19'09 high at 1.3738.On the whole, although short term upmove activated at the 1.2456 level is still alive, corrective price activities has put that on hold.

Support Comments

1.3330 Jan 27'09 high

1.3113 Mar 30'09 low

1.3097/93 Feb 09'09 high/.50 Ret(1.2456-1.3738 rally)

Resistance Comments

1.3490 Daily 200 ema

1.3580 April 06'09 high.

1.3738 Mar 19'09 high

Daily Chart: EURUSD

GBPUSD: Eyeing The 1.4986 Level.

GBPUSD: Although marginal gains were recorded at the end of Tuesday trading session, while the pair continues to maintain within its daily rising channel, risk of a retarget of its April 06'09/Feb 09'09 highs at 1.4986/65 continues to shape up. In that case, a loss of there will trigger the resumption of GBP's upmove initiated off the 1.3504 level towards the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08'09 high and possibly higher. The daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. Downside targets are situated at the 1.4662 level, its Feb 23'09 high and the 1.4465 level, its rising channel base. On continued weakness, lower level prices should be aimed at with the 1.4305 level, its Mar 06'09 seen as the next target followed by the 1.4110 level, its Mar 30'09 low and subsequently the 1.3845 level, its Mar 18'09 low. All in all, though GBP retains its longer term bearishness, it remains biased to the upside in the short term while confined within its channel.

Support Comments

1.4662 Feb 23'09 high

1.4465 Rising channel base

1.4305 Mar 06'09 high

Resistance Comments

1.4986/59 April 06'09/Feb 09'09 highs

1.5373 Jan 08'09 high

1.5724 Dec 17'08 high


Dailly Chart: GBPUSD