Tuesday closed the market green across the broader markets and on higher volume. A narrow range accumulation day, while it is good to see participation it is still suspect. The TRIN closed at .74 bullish number however, that was on the day's highs. The VIX closed at 23.08 not far off the 2009 lows at 22.48, but that is a new closing low on the year. Gold closed the day up $10.90 at $1015.80 and oil up $1.79 at $71.50 (October) a barrel (November up $1.85 $71.78).
As mentioned on Monday daily charts closed with divergence, but Tuesday straightened that out. So nothing to look for on that front now. The daily charts are still waning as the upper Bollinger band sits just overhead. The Nas Composite broke out of a 4 day range, but the Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow sit at the upper end of the range. By days end the 65 minute charts were starting to rollover, but not enough time to confirm anything or move lower. The stochastics, RSI, CCI all trying to rotate down, but again we'll have to wait to see what Wednesday's first hour brings. The mid day chop was dull again today leaving us with very little opportunity, I would expect Wednesday's Fed announcement at 2:15 to create some volatility for us.
Into Wednesday expect the first hour to be our range until the 2:15 announcement rolls around. Usually pre fed action is lackluster and the last two days we've had lackluster action throughout lunch and into the afternoon, so our late morning into lunch is likely to be range bound chop. We will use that time to prepare for any changes the Fed may make in the statement, nothing on the rate is expected to change for this meeting. An early move higher could get some interest and keep the market from being so tight, but I am not expecting anything that high off the opening with no news due out in the pre market.
On futures the volume was split today with the ES and NQ lower and TF higher then Tuesday's. Little lackluster with the mid day chop and that sucked the excitement right out of the Es and NQ. The pivots did not test today and that means Wednesday they are more likely to be something we see multiple times. The NQ and TF still no test into the weekly pivot so keep an eye on that if we come off the ledge of this channel to the downside. The ES did clear 1064 today and that still leaves us to look for 1076.75 area to come.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AZO, GIS, and after the bell BBBY, PAYX, RHT. Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1066, weekly pivot 1052.75. Intraday support: 1064.75, 1062.75, 1058.50, 1055.50, 1052, 1046 fills gap, 1039.25 Resistance: 1067.25-1069-1071.50, 1076.75, 1082.25, 1086.25