U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the market could not shrug off the negativity from the US rating downgrade and New York stocks fell 400 points in the last 2 hours of trade leaving traders stunned and cautious. Risk was taken off the table from Oil to the Aussie dollar with investors flooding into Gold and Swiss Franc. In US stocks on Friday, DJIA -634 points closing at 10809, S&P -79 points closing at 1119 and NASDAQ -174 points closing at 2357. Looking ahead, Key FOMC meeting and statement

The Euro (EUR) remained under pressure due the demand for safe havens pushing the EUR/USD back to 1.4200. Support was found under the figure and support was also found on the EUR/JPY at Y110. The ECB announced it was buying Italian and Spanish bonds but the amount was not disclosed and the pair will now look Chinese data today and the FOMC meeting tonight.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the Yen was bought across the board on safe haven demand with the USD/JPY sold on rallies to Y77.50 support. The market is very wary of intervention with the current levels the same as where the bank has intervened before. The outlook is bearish for most crosses as stocks continue to slump. UPDATE CHINA CPI hot 6.5% vs. 6.4% forecast.

The Sterling (GBP) Cable is holding up well compared to other risk currencies with EUR/GBP selling supporting. The major is finding support at 1.6300 and is enjoying not being the center of attention and relative calm. Riots in London have to potential to change this but have so far being ignored and contained.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) The Aussie crashed into the US close falling to 1.01 tracking the stock market fall and AUD/JPY to Y78. Traders are targeting the parity with the key level the last support before we move to 2010 levels. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are unwinding and soaring higher with the risk currency being pummeled.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold finished up $50 an ounce and is well supported with support from traders globally as confidence in the central banks wanes. Crude Oil crashed to $81 a barrel and continued into Asia today falling another $4 a barrel to $77.

Pairs to watch

OIL/USD very oversold

AUD/USD approaching Key 1.0000 Support



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3951

1.4014

1.4185

1.4454

1.4536

USD/JPY

76.25

76.61

77.25

78.47

80.24

GBP/USD

1.6121

1.6224

1.6295

1.6473

1.6547

AUD/USD

0.9850

1.0000

1.0020

1.0289

1.0527

XAU/USD

1640.00

1665

1741

1731

1750

OIL/USD

72.50



75.00

77.30

80.00

81.00



Euro - 1.4185

Initial support at 1.4014 (July 18 low) followed by 1.3951 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4454 (Aug 1 high) followed by 1.4536 (Jul 27 high)



Yen - 77.25

Initial support is located at 76.61 (79.60 minus 81.48-78.47) followed by 76.25 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 78.47 (Aug 8 high) followed by 80.24 (Aug 4 high).

Pound - 1.6295

Initial support at 1.6224 (Aug 2 low) followed by 1.6121 (Jul 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6473 (Jun 7 high) followed by 1.6547 (May 31 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0020

Initial support at 1.0000 (Parity) followed by the 0.9850 (Previous support). Initial resistance is now at 1.0500 (Previous support) followed by 1.0600 (Big figure).

Gold - 1741

Initial support at 1665 (Aug 2 low) followed by 1640 (Jul 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1750 (Psychological Level) followed by 1800 (Psychological level).



Oil - 77.25

Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall