CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 27th August (00:30 GMT)

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was sold on an attempted global rally in Asia but losses where limited and when US stocks sank the Dollar's misfortune was reversed. Weekly Jobless Claims were at 473k vs. 500k. In US stocks, DJIA -74 points closing at 9985, S&P -8 points closing at 1047 and NASDAQ +17 points closing at 2118. Looking ahead, Q2 GDP is forecast at 1.8%. Fed Chief Bernanke Speaks to Central Bankers.

The Euro (EUR) broke through resistance at 1.2730 in New York on solid weekly jobless claims but failed to hold above the figure. The market will closely watch Bernanke's speech today for clues on any further US QE and this could dramatically alter the outlook for the EUR/USD. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2649 and a high of 1.2766 before closing at 1.2715. Looking ahead, July German Imports forecast at -0.3% vs. -0.9%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) a rally Asia was capped below Y85 and the rest of the day saw light selling back to lower Y84 region. AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY managed bigger rallies but traders are cautious ahead of Bernankes speech. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 84.26 and a high of 84.91 before closing the day around 84.35 in the New York session. UPDATE July unemployment Rate forecast at 5.2% vs. 5.3%.

The Sterling (GBP) broke back above the key 1.5500 level and was able to test 1.5600 on solid EUR/GBP selling and improvement in UK Retail Sale Outlook. August CBI Distributive Trades survey showed a rise to 35 vs. 20 forecast and 33 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5466 and a high of 1.5600 before closing the day at 1.5525 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q2 GDP forecast at 1.1% q/q.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed above 0.8900 in gentle markets but the late US stock market sell off sent the risk sensitive pair back down to the mid 0.88 region. Q2 Capex missed at -4% vs. 2% forecast and could prompt the RBA to remain on hold at 4.5% for some time further. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8830 and a high of 0.8920 before closing the US session at 0.8860.

Oil & Gold (XAU) consolidated gains well support on dips. Overall trading with a low of USD$1233 and high of USD $1244 before ending the New York session at USD$1236 an ounce. Crude Oil showed two way action finishing well off highs near opening levels. WTI Oil Closed +$0.30 at $72.80 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2152

1.2434

1.2715

1.2730

1.2933

USD/JPY

81.85

83.60

84.45

85.20

86.38

GBP/USD

1.5125

1.5324

1.5535

1.5713

1.5999

AUD/USD

0.8634

0.8771

0.8860

0.8915

0.9080

XAU/USD

1190.00

1210

1237

1247

1265.00

OIL/USD

70.70

72.50

72.90

75.00

76.00





Euro - 1.2715

Initial support at 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334) followed by 1.2152 (June 29 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2730 (Aug 23 low) followed by 1.2933 (August 6 high)

Yen - 84.45

Initial support is located at 83.60 (August 24 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.20 (August 24 high) followed by 86.38 (July 28 high).

Pound - 1.5535

Initial support at 1.5324 (38.2% retrace of 1.4231-1.5999) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5713 (Aug 12 high) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 12 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.8860

Initial support at 0.8771 (Aug 25 low) followed by the 0.8634 (July 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8915 (August 24 high) followed by 0.9080 (Aug 17 high).

Gold - 1237

Initial support at 1210 (Aug 13 low) followed by 1190 (Aug 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 1247 (June 30 high) followed by 1265 (June 21 high).

Oil - 72.90

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).