U.S. Dollar Trading (US) stocks around the world enjoyed small gains during Asia and Europe but when Bernanke talked down the US economic recovery without mentioning QE3 the stock markets sank into the close. In US stocks, DJIA -19 points closing at 12070, S&P -1 points closing at 1285 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2701. Looking ahead, Crude Oil Inventories forecast at -1.5m vs. 2.9 m previously.

The Euro (EUR) stalled at 1.4700 with concerns that Greece debt may be rolled over or extended given comments from German Finance minister on the subject. The weak USD even as stock markets fall is making the Euro perform well across the board. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4562 and a high of 1.4697 before closing the day around 1.4690 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Trade Balance forecast at 13.8bn vs. 15.2 bn previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY is remaining close to the Key Y80 level with risk off trading hurting the crosses and the US fiscal outlook providing plenty of incentive for bears. Comments from Japanese officials began yesterday saying they are watching the recent Yen strength closely. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 79.98 and a high of 80.34 before closing the day around 80.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) rallied in Europe on Chinese diversification talks before stalling with EUR/GBP buying and stock market softness in the US session. GBP/AUD is providing support as the risk sensitive cross rallies after months of weakness. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6322 and a high of 1.6474 before closing the day at 1.6435 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under pressure after the RBA meeting which held at 4.75% and was more dovish than forecast causing rate hike expectation to be pushed back later into the year. Weakness in most crosses also hurt sentiment with more downside testing likely ahead. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0670 and a high of 1.0760 before closing the day at 1.0710 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was contained in a $10 range between $1540-50 supported on sovereign risk concerns. Overall trading with a low of USD$1536 and high of USD $1550 before ending the New York session at USD$1541 an ounce. Oil found support on a dip towards $98 before rallying back to opening levels. WTI Oil Closed +0.10 at $99.10 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4451

1.4557

1.4660

1.4711

1.4800

USD/JPY

78.83

79.57

79.90

81.01

81.33

GBP/USD

1.6173

1.6286

1.6415

1.6496

1.6661

AUD/USD

1.0510

1.0587

1.0665

1.0758

1.0877

XAU/USD

1504.00

1524

1541

1550

1577

OIL/USD

95.00



98.00

99.10

100.00

103.00





Euro - 1.4660

Initial support at 1.4557 (Jun 6 low) followed by 1.4451 (Jun 3 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4711 (76.4% retrace of 1.4940-1.3970) followed by 1.4800 (big figure resistance)



Yen - 79.90

Initial support is located at 79.57 (May 5 low) followed by 78.83 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 81.01 (Jun 3 high) followed by 81.33 (Jun 2 high).

Pound - 1.6415

Initial support at 1.6286 (May 26 low) followed by 1.6132 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6496 (Jun 1 high) followed by 1.6547 (May 31 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0665

Initial support at 1.0587 (Jun 2 low) followed by the 1.0510 (May 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0758 (May 31 high) followed by 1.0877 (76.4% retrace of 1.1012-1.0441).

Gold - 1541

Initial support at 1524 (Jun 3 low) followed by 1504 (May 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1550 (June 1 high) followed by 1577 (All time high).



Oil - 99.10

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 103.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall