U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD came under heavy selling pressure during FED Chief Bernanke's speech overnight where he outlined that the US economy still needed low rates for an extended period and that QE was important. Commentators noted he made no mention of a timeline to exit from the current policy. In US stocks, DJIA +95 points closing at 12691, S&P +8 points closing at 1355 and NASDAQ +22 points closing at 2869. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 392k vs. 403k previously.

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.4800 after Bernanke's speech with the market pouncing on the differing monetary policy outlook. February Industrial Orders gained 0.9% vs. 1.0% forecast. The trend is quite strong and now has little resistance up to the medium term 1.5000 target. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4631 and a high of 1.4798 before closing the day around 1.4785 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April German Unemployment Change forecast at -30k vs. -55 k previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major was well support in Europe on heavy cross buying with GBP/JPY leading the market higher. USD weakness in the US session reversed the pair back to Y82. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.33 and a high of 82.83 before closing the day around 82.10 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ Rate Announcement forecast at 0.1%.

The Sterling (GBP) was the strongest currency in the market overnight as the recent underperformance was corrected on strong Q1 GDP and Mortgage data. Q1 GDP was 0.5% Q/Q and Mortgages increased 31k in March. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6443 and a high of 1.6673 before closing the day at 1.6695 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the Euro and stock markets to fresh post float highs with big figure resistance the only thing slowing the Aussie down. AUD/JPY reclaimed Y89 and is targeting the key Y90 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0777 and a high of 1.0881 before closing the day at 1.0850 in the New York session. UPDATE RBNZ held at 2.5%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold surged on the weak USD outlook and loose US momentary policy. Overall trading with a low of USD$1502 and high of USD $1530 before ending the New York session at USD$1528 an ounce. Crude Oil crept back above $113 in striking distance of year highs at $113.50. WTI Oil Closed +$1.00 at $113.20 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4328

1.4500

1.4840

1.4905

1.5000

USD/JPY

80.89

81.27

82.00

82.60

83.27

GBP/USD

1.6308

1.6432

1.6700

1.6722

1.6800

AUD/USD

1.0519

1.0677

1.0920

1.1000

1.1100

XAU/USD

1477.00

1492

1529

1542

1550

OIL/USD

112.00



113.50

113.60

115.00

120.00





Euro - 1.4840

Initial support at 1.4500 (Psychological Support) followed by 1.4328 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4905 (Dec 7 2009 high) followed by 1.5000 (Big Figure Resistance)



Yen - 82.00

Initial support is located at 81.27 (Mar 27 low) followed by 80.89 (50% retrace of 76.25-85.53). Initial resistance is now at 82.60 (Apr 21 low) followed by 83.27 (Apr 18 High).

Pound - 1.6700

Initial support at 1.6432 (April 26 low) followed by 1.6308 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6722 (Dec 3 2009 high) followed by 1.6800 (Big Figure Resistance).



Australian Dollar - 1.0920

Initial support at 1.0677 (Apr 21 low) followed by the 1.0519 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.1000 (big figure resistance) followed by 1.1100 (big figure resistance).

Gold - 1528

Initial support at 1492 (Apr 20 low) followed by 1477 (Apr 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 1542 (1445.68 plus 1381.22-1478.18) followed by 1550 (Big level resistance).



Oil - 113.60

Initial support at 113.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 110.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 115.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 120.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall