U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) volatility is expected on Monday as news broke that Osama bin laden had been killed in the Asian session. USD initially strengthened but how long this counter trend move can last is the question traders will be asking around the world. Silver also grabbed attention falling 10% at the open on Monday on speculation new CME margin rules would cause liquidations. In US stocks, DJIA +47 points closing at 12810, S&P +3 points closing at 1363 and NASDAQ +1 points closing at 2873. Looking ahead, April Manufacturing PMI forecast at 60 vs. 61.2 previously.

The Euro (EUR) topped out at 1.4880 on Friday and fell back in Asia on news of Bin Laden's death. The market will be closely watching the ECB later this week to see the pace the central bank is looking to raise rates. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4802 and a high of 1.4878 before closing the day around 1.4826 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Manufacturing PMI forecast at 57.7 vs. 57.7.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remained in familiar levels around the Y81.50 level but closed on a weak footing. The market tested Y81 early on Monday but reversed on USD buying post Bin Laden news. The Outlook is mixed with Friday's NFP also seen as a major catalyst for fresh direction.  Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.02 and a high of 81.65 before closing the day around 81.05 in the New York session.  

The Sterling (GBP) consolidated into the weekend above the 1.6600 level but struggled to push far above  1.6700. EUR/GBP hit month highs above 0.8930 on continued Euro rally but pared back those gains into the weekend. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6622 and a high of 1.6721 before closing the day at 1.6712 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Governor King Speaks

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong as stocks in the US grinded higher and gold pushed up. 1.1000 was broken in Asia early on Monday but the market reversed aggressively from the key level as longs took profit. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0878 and a high of 1.0977 before closing the day at 1.0965 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold surged higher to fresh all time highs just under $1570 with the uptrend resuming. Overall trading with a low of USD$1531 and high of USD $1569 before ending the New York session at USD$1562 an ounce. Crude Oil broke briefly above the $114 level in another strong day for commodities. WTI Oil Closed $1.07 at $113.93 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4633

1.4769

1.4790

1.4905

1.5000

USD/JPY

80.89

81.27

81.55

82.28

83.27

GBP/USD

1.6432

1.6500

1.6680

1.6747

1.6846

AUD/USD

1.0775

1.0852

1.0935

1.1000

1.1100

XAU/USD

1501.00

1524

1556

1569

1600

OIL/USD

110.00



112.00

112.30

114.00

115.00





Euro - 1.4790

Initial support at 1.4769 (April 28 Low) followed by 1.4633 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4905 (Dec 7 2009 high) followed by 1.5000 (Big Figure Resistance)



Yen - 81.55

Initial support is located at 81.27 (Mar 27 low) followed by 80.89 (50% retrace of 76.25-85.53). Initial resistance is now at 82.28 (Apr 28 low) followed by 83.27 (Apr 18 High).

Pound - 1.6680

Initial support at 1.6500 (psychological support) followed by 1.6432 (Apr 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6747 (Apr 28 high) followed by 1.6846 (Nov 18, 2009).



Australian Dollar - 1.0935

Initial support at 1.0852 (Apr 28 low) followed by the 1.0775 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.1000 (big figure resistance) followed by 1.1100 (big figure resistance).

Gold - 1556

Initial support at 1524 (Apr 28 low) followed by 1501 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1569 (Apr 29 high) followed by 1600 (Big level resistance).



Oil - 112.30

Initial support at 112.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 110.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 114.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 115.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall