U.S. Dollar Trading (US) we saw more volatility during the day with heavy stock selling reversed to let US markets finish positive for the first time in 2 weeks. July ISM Services slipped to 52.7 vs. 53.8 previously. ADP Employment at 114k vs. 100k forecast. Sentiment improved in the second half of the session on speculation QE3 is a real possibility. In US stocks, DJIA +29 points closing at 11896, S&P +6 points closing at 1260 and NASDAQ 23 points closing at 2693. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 405k vs. 398k previously.

The Euro (EUR) enjoyed a rally in the European session after being under pressure most of the week. EUR/CHF was the main source of strength up over 2% on Swiss intervention via its central bank. July PMI services slipped to 51.4 vs. 53.7 previously. The EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4142 and a high of 1.4374 before closing the day around 1.4295 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August ECB Rate Decision forecast to hold at 1.5%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major surged in the Asian session Thursday as the MOF confirmed intervention and the BOJ ended it's rate meeting one day early. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY surged with the USD/JPY which itself moved from Y77 to Y79. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 76.76 and a high of 77.39 before closing the day around 79.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the stocks and Euro higher supported on stronger than expected PMI data. July Services PMI jumped to 55.4 vs. 53.9 previously. GBP/CHF surged with the Swiss intervention while  GBP/JPY soared with Japanese intervention. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6235 and a high of 1.6477 before closing the day at 1.6310 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Rate decision forecast to hold at 0.5%

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie found support under 1.0700 after falling when local economic data missed. June Retail Sales fell -0.1% vs. +0.3% forecast m/m. AUD/JPY reacted to the USD/JPY intervention in Asia but the AUD/USD is struggling. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0677 and a high of 1.0787 before closing the day at 1.0740 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Quarterly RBA Monetary Statement.

Oil & Gold (XAU) popped above $1670 before reversing back to $1660 where support was found and the precious metal closed. Overall trading with a low of USD$1651 and high of USD $1673 before ending the New York session at USD$1661 an ounce. Oil fell further unable to break the downtrend. WTI Oil Closed -$1.86 at $91.93 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4069

1.4134

1.4300

1.4454

1.4536

USD/JPY

76.25

76.61

78.90

79.32

80.00

GBP/USD

1.6121

1.6238

1.6390

1.6473

1.6547

AUD/USD

1.0500

1.0655

1.0705

1.1008

1.1198

XAU/USD

1603.00

1616

1665

1676

1700

OIL/USD

90.00



91.00

92.20

92.50

95.00



Euro - 1.4300

Initial support at 1.4134 (July 20 low) followed by 1.4069 (Jul 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4454 (Aug 1 high) followed by 1.4536 (Jul 27 high)



Yen - 78.90

Initial support is located at 76.61 (79.60 minus 81.48-78.47) followed by 76.25 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 79.32 (Jul 22 high) followed by 80.00 (Psychological Key Level).

Pound - 1.6390

Initial support at 1.6238 (Aug 1 low) followed by 1.6121 (Jul 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6473 (Jun 7 high) followed by 1.6547 (May 31 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0705

Initial support at 1.0655 (61.8% retrace of 1.0391-1.1081) followed by the 1.0500 (Jun 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.1008 (Aug 2 high) followed by 1.1198 (1.0391 plus 0.618 of 0.9706-1.1012).

Gold - 1666

Initial support at 1616 (Aug 2 low) followed by 1603 (Jul 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1676 (channel upper drawn off Oct, 2008 low) followed by 1700 (Psychological level).



Oil - 92.20

Initial support at 91.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 92.50 (Intraday resistance) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall