Caution ahead of EU Summit Finish

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks reversed sharply today on concerns that some disunity was appearing at the EU summit between France and Italy. In US data, October CB Consumer Confidence dropped to 39.8 its lowest level since 2009. US House prices fell 3.5% y/y in August. In US stocks, DJIA -207 points closing at 11706, S&P -25 points closing at 1229 and NASDAQ -61 points closing at 2638. Looking ahead, September  New Home forecast at 0.3mln vs. 0.295mln previously. September Core Durable Goods forecast at 0.4% vs. -0.1% previously.  

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD did well to remain at the 1.3900 handle overnight with the headlines out of the EU summit still showing fractures. Concerns are building over Italy's ability to pass further austerity measures. German Consumer Confidence remained steady at 5.3 in November. Looking ahead, EU Summit final day. Headlines and final statement expected late US session or even into the Asia session tomorrow.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) fresh all time lows were seen on the USD/JPY under Y75.80 overnight briefly before the pair bounced back to Y76. The verbal intervention out of Japan in growing louder with Fin min Azumi talking daily about the ability of the BOJ to do what is needed to stop speculators hurting the Japanese economy. Looking ahead, September Retail Sales forecast at 0.1% vs. -2.6% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD remained pivoted at the 1.6000 level failing to move far from the level even as risk aversion picked up in the US session. EUR/GBP remained steady as well but is grinding lower under 0.8700. Q2 Current account came in at -2bn vs. -4.1bn in Q1. Looking ahead, October CBI Orders forecast unchanged at -9.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD failed to get above 1.0500 going into the European session and when stocks turned negative the pair fell back to 1.0400 supported. Q3 CPI figures just released were at forecast at 0.6% q/q but the core figures showed a sharp miss at 0.3% vs. 0.7% forecast. The AUD/USD current down at 1.0370 supports.

Oil & Gold (XAU) enjoyed a solid rally overnight breaking above $1700 in a $50 an ounce move higher before consolidating. Oil extended gains for a second day surging to $94 a barrel before weakness in stocks dragged the energy back to the $92 handle.

Pairs to watch

EUR/USD The main trade today, EU to deliver?

XUA/USD more gains to come now we above $1700?



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3566

1.3704

1.3920

1.3954

1.4013

USD/JPY

74.44

75.00

76.05

77.09

77.49

GBP/USD

1.5681

1.5754

1.6020

1.6104

1.6203

AUD/USD

1.0102

1.0203

1.0370

1.0500

1.0666

XAU/USD

1583.00

1635

1710

1750

1800

OIL/USD

90.00



92.50

92.95

94.00

95.00

Euro - 1.3920

Initial support at 1.3704 (Oct 21 low) followed by 1.3566 (Oct 11 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3954 (Oct 24 high) followed by 1.4013 (61.8% retrace of 1.4549-1.3146)



Yen - 76.10

Initial support is located at 75.00 (big figure Support) followed by 74.44 (77.86 minus 0.618 of 81.48-75.95). Initial resistance is now at 77.09 (Oct 20 high) followed by 77.49 (Oct 12 high).

Pound - 1.6020

Initial support at 1.5754 (Oct 21 low) followed by 1.5681 (Oct 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6104 (61.8% retrace of 1.6618-1.5272) followed by 1.6203 (Sep 5 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0370

Initial support at 1.0203 (Oct 21 low) followed by the 1.0102 (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0500 (Big Figure) followed by 1.0666 (Sept 5 high).

Gold - 1710

Initial support at 1635 (Oct 24 low) followed by 1583 (Sept 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1750 (big figure) followed by 1800 (big figure).



Oil - 92.95

Initial support at 92.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at  94.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall