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U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the stock market plunged lower again continuing on from Friday’s fall with concern that Greece was about to default. The market recovered sharply from lows into the close though on news China was looking to invest in Italian debt. Expectations of further unconventional Fed monetary easing is growing in consensus. In US stocks, DJIA +68 points closing at 11061, S&P +8 points closing at 1162 and NASDAQ +27 points closing at 2495. Looking ahead, August Export Prices forecast at 0 vs. -0.4%. Import prices are forecast at -0.8% vs. 0.3% previously.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD plunged going into Europe hitting 1.3500 before reversing and grinding higher for the rest of the day. The Chinese Italian bond news helped support into the close and the pair finished near highs at 1.3680. Italian July Industrial Production fell to -0.7% vs. 0.2% forecast m/m. Looking ahead, Traders will continue to focus on European Debt yields in Greece and Italy.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY dipped below Y77 on the weakness in the crosses with EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY dropping through key levels. The dip below proved short-lived however with the market grinding higher for the rest of the day and the major finishing above the key Y77 level.

The Sterling (GBP) was supported under 1.5800 and closed at opening levels near 1.5850 with most of the action left to the crosses. EUR/GBP slumped to multi month lows under 0.8550 before reversing sharply with the EUR/USD bounce to 0.8630. The outlook is closely linked to the stock market and if the ECB can contain the debt crisis.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the risk currency was under heavy selling pressure for most of the day with AUD/JPY break Y80 and AUD/USD falling below 1.0300. The market bounced into the US close with the sharp reversal of the US stocks but was far from convincing. Looking ahead, August Business Confidence previously at 2.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was weak even at the height of the Eurozone risk aversion with USD strength trumping the safe haven demand. Crude Oil bounced to $89 in a strong performance given the risk aversion and shows underlining investor support.

Pairs to watch

EUR/USD is the selling overdone?

XAU/USD has the rally run out of steam?

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3300

1.3525

1.3620

1.3937

1.4149

USD/JPY

76.43

76.70

77.25

77.86

78.47

GBP/USD

1.5752

1.5781

1.5845

1.5990

1.6203

AUD/USD

1.0200

1.0250

1.0320

1.0380

1.0666

XAU/USD

1757.00

1805

1824

1885

1921

OIL/USD

85.00

87.0

88.50

89.00

90.00

Euro – 1.3620

Initial support at 1.3525 (Feb 22 low) followed by 1.3300 (Big figure support). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3937 (Sept 9 high) followed by 1.4149 (Sept 7 high)

Yen – 77.25

Initial support is located at 76.70 (Sep 12 low) followed by 76.43 (Aug 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 77.86 (Aug 9 high) followed by 78.47 (Aug 8 high).

Pound – 1.5845

Initial support at 1.5781 (Jul 12low) followed by 1.5752 (Jan 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5990 (Sept 9 high) followed by 1.6203 (Sep 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 1.0320

Initial support at 1.0250 (Sep 12 low) followed by the 1.0200 (Big Figure Support). Initial resistance is now at 1.0380 (hourly resistance) followed by 1.0666 (Sept 5 high).

Gold – 1824

Initial support at 1805 (Sept 8 low) followed by 1757 (Aug 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1885 (Sept 9 high) followed by 1921 (Sept 6 high).

Oil – 88.50

Initial support at 87.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 89.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall