Daily Outlook - China Supporting the Euro

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed with many pairs moving independently in thin holiday markets. Stock markets continued to rise and this is allowing risk assets such as Oil and Aussie to rise. November Home Sales gained 4.68m vs. 4.43m previously. In US stocks, DJIA +26 points closing at 11559, S&P +4 points closing at 1258 and NASDAQ +3 points closing at 2671. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 420k vs. 420k previously.

The Euro (EUR) shot higher on rumors that China would be buying Portuguese debt before reversing back under 1.3100 with the resumption of selling. EUR/GBP managed to hold strength and reclaimed the 0.8500. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3077 and a high of 1.3183 before closing at 1.3105.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major found sellers once again near Y84 and pushed back to Y83.50 with EUR/JPY selling the biggest weight. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.40 and a high of 83.87 before closing the day around 83.55 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) UK Q3 GDP was revised lower to 0.7% vs. 0.8% originally and this allowed the market to push the already weak Pound further down. UK MPC Minutes released from last rate meeting showed the board was split 1-7-1 with one member calling for rate hikes and another for expansion of the Asset purchase program while the rest called for a hold. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5354 and a high of 1.5497 before closing the day at 1.5420 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) took advantage of strong stocks and commodities to break above parity and look to extend gains in the Asian session today. Q3 NZD GDP was released and surprised with a negative -0.2% print sending the AUD/NZD above 1.3500 for the first time this year. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9949 and a high of 1.0013 before closing the US session at 0.9990.

Oil & Gold (XAU) remained supported on European sovereign issues but kept to a tight range. Overall trading with a low of USD$1383 and high of USD $1391 before ending the New York session at USD$1387 an ounce. Broke above $90 a barrel as the rally continued. WTI Oil Closed +$0.70 at $90.50 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3061

1.3074

1.3120

1.3382

1.3499

USD/JPY

82.34

82.84

83.20

84.12

85.40

GBP/USD

1.5297

1.5345

1.5415

1.5568

1.5647

AUD/USD

0.9863

0.9918

1.0020

1.0031

1.0091

XAU/USD

1361.00

1374

1387

1397

1408

OIL/USD

89.00

90.00

90.60

91.00

92.50

Euro - 1.3120

Initial support at 1.3074 (Dec 21 low) followed by 1.3061 (Dec 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3382 (Dec 15 high) followed by 1.3499 (Dec 14 high)

Yen - 83.20

Initial support is located at 82.84 (Dec 15 high) followed by 82.84 (Dec 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 84.12 (Dec 20 high) followed by 85.40 (Sept 24 high).

Pound - 1.5415

Initial support at 1.5345 (Sep 8 Low) followed by 1.5297 (Sep 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5568 (Dec 21 high) followed by 1.5647 (Dec 17 high).

Australian Dollar - 1.0020

Initial support at 0.9918 (Dec 21 low) followed by the 0.9863 (Dec 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0031 (76.4% retrace of 1.0183-0.9537) followed by 1.0091 (Nov 11 high).

Gold - 1387

Initial support at 1374 (Dec 20 low) followed by 1361 (Nov 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1397 (Dec 16 high) followed by 1408 (Dec 14 high).

Oil - 90.60

Initial support at 90.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 89.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 91.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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