U.S. Dollar Trading (US) struggled in European and US trade as the majors found support in Asia and staged a minor relief rally. Stock markets remained weak but commodities were strong. April New Homes Sales at 0.323m vs. 0.3m previously. In US stocks, DJIA -25 points closing at 12356, S&P -1 points closing at 1316 and NASDAQ -12 points closing at 2746. Looking ahead, April Durable Goods Orders forecast at -2.1% vs. 4.1% previously.

The Euro (EUR) reversed losses seen on Monday with a gentle rally above 1.4100. The market took solace in German IFO Climate at 114.2 vs. 113.9 forecast. Also helping was the rally in Oil back to $100 a barrel and bond yields falling slightly. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4011 and a high of 1.4134 before closing the day around 1.4095 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June GFK Index forecast at 5.6 vs. 5.7 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major broke above Y82 and was able hold most of the days gains with Yen crosses on the move higher. EUR/JPY moved to Y116 but fell back in late trade on rumors of a snap Greece election. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.60 and a high of 82.22 before closing the day around 81.95 in the New York session. UPDATE April Trade Balance at -463bn vs. -692bn forecast.

The Sterling (GBP) was under pressure going into the European session as GBP put UK banks under negative review. Some better than expected economic data helped the Cable rally to day highs above 1.6200. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6067 and a high of 1.6210 before closing the day at 1.6180 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q1 GDP Final forecast to remain unrevised at 0.5% Q/Q.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) Bounced off the 1.0500 level to track the Euro move higher. Concerns about China slowdown are noted in the reasons for the weakness in the AUD/USD in recent days given worries about Aussie exports. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0492 and a high of 1.0584 before closing the day at 1.0505 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Bullish bank predictions on Gold have helped lift the precious metal to multi session highs just under $1530. Overall trading with a low of USD$1513 and high of USD $1528 before ending the New York session at USD$1524 an ounce. Oil led the rebound on expectations Libyan output would remained constricted. WTI Oil Closed +$1.89 at $98.40 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3855

1.4000

1.4060

1.4147

1.4346

USD/JPY

80.00

81.32

81.95

82.28

82.79

GBP/USD

1.6000

1.6046

1.6175

1.6239

1.6380

AUD/USD

1.0443

1.0500

1.0505

1.0657

1.0717

XAU/USD

1485.00

1504

1525

1533

1543

OIL/USD

96.50



98.00

98.40

100.00

103.00





Euro - 1.4060

Initial support at 1.4000 (Big Figure Support) followed by 1.3855 (Mar 15 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4147 (May 23 high) followed by 1.4346 (May 20 high)



Yen - 81.95

Initial support is located at 81.34 (May 23 low) followed by 80.00 (Big Level support). Initial resistance is now at 82.28 (April 28 low) followed by 82.79 (Apr 27 High).

Pound - 1.6175

Initial support at 1.6046 (50% retrace of 1.5345-1.6747) followed by 1.6000 (Big Level Support). Initial resistance is now at 1.6239 (May 23 high) followed by 1.6380 (May 12 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0505

Initial support at 1.0500 (Big Figure Support) followed by the 1.0443 (Apr 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0657 (May 23 high) followed by 1.0717 (May 13 high).

Gold - 1525

Initial support at 1504 (May 23 low) followed by 1485 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 1533 (61.8% retrace of 1577.57-1462.45) followed by 1543 (May 4 high).



Oil - 98.40

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 96.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 103.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall