Daily Outlook - Currencies Range Trading

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with little movement seen in the markets overnight the Dollar finished roughly where it began against most pairs. Weekly Jobless Claims were strong at 421k vs. 435k forecast. In US stocks, DJIA -2 points closing at 11370, S&P +4 points closing at 1233 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2616. Looking ahead, November Trade Balance is forecast at -43.5bn vs. -44bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) fell from day highs above 1.3300 after Ireland was downgraded by Fitch and Standard & Poors. The market slid below 1.3200 but when US stocks remained supported by strong data the Euro bounced back to the mid 1.3200 region. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3163 and a high of 1.3324 before closing at 1.3240. Looking ahead, November WPI is previously at -0.3%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggled to push above multimonth resistance at Y84.40 and spent most of the day with a slight downside bias. Support was found at Y83.50. Q3 GDP at 1.1% vs. 1.0% forecast y/y.  Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.50 and a high of 84.13 before closing the day around 83.70 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) The BoE meeting was a non event with the central bank holding at 0.5% as expected and leaving the Asset Purchase Program at 200bn. Cable fell tracking the Euro lower but found support at 1.5700, finishing in the middle of the recent range. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5710 and a high of 1.5844 before closing the day at 1.5765 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November PPI forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.6% previously.   

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie jumped on very strong November Jobs Numbers at +54k vs. +20k  forecast. The Unemployment rate fell to 5.2% vs. 5.4% previously. AUD/USD found solid resistance at 0.9880 and eased back to 0.9820. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9778 and a high of 0.9886 before closing the US session at 0.9840.

Oil & Gold (XAU) edged higher orbiting around the $1390 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1380 and high of USD $1394 before ending the New York session at USD$1388 an ounce. Traded in a 200 point range but finished only slightly higher. WTI Oil Closed +$0.29 at $88.57 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2969

1.3165

1.3245

1.3323

1.3401

USD/JPY

82.32

83.46

83.80

84.41

85.40

GBP/USD

1.5581

1.5669

1.5770

1.5841

1.5965

AUD/USD

0.9625

0.9739

0.9855

0.9939

1.000

XAU/USD

1362.00

1371

1389

1404

1438

OIL/USD

87.0

88.00

88.75

90.00

91.00

Euro - 1.3245

Initial support at 1.3165 (Dec 9 low) followed by 1.2969 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3323 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1.3401 (Dec 7 high)

Yen - 83.80

Initial support is located at 83.46 (Dec 8 high) followed by 82.32 (50% retrace of 80.22-84.41). Initial resistance is now at 84.41 (Nov 29 high) followed by 85.40 (Sept 24 high).

Pound - 1.5770

Initial support at 1.5669 (Dec 8 Low) followed by 1.5581 (Dec 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5841 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1.5965 (Nov 23 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9855

Initial support at 0.9739 (Dec 3 low) followed by the 0.9625 (Dec 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9939 (Dec 3 high) followed by 1.0000 (Psychological Resistance).

Gold - 1389

Initial support at 1371 (Dec 3 low) followed by 1362 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1404 (Dec 8 high) followed by 1438 (1329.70 plus 1315.45-1424.60).

Oil - 88.40

Initial support at 88.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 87.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 90.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 91.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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