U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the USD was under pressure for most of the day with the ongoing Debt Ceiling debate increasing chances the US will lose its AAA rating. The EUR/USD tested 1.4500 in Asia and is leading the majors higher. In US stocks, DJIA -91 points closing at 12501, S&P -5 points closing at 1331 and NASDAQ -2 points closing at 2840. Looking ahead, June Durable Goods forecast at 0.3% vs. 2.1% previously m/m.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro was the main gainer from the US Debt issue and closed above 1.4500 in a strong technical break higher. Stock markets are under pressure but the usual safe haven demand for the Dollar is not there with CHF and Yen in demand instead. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4356 and a high of 1.4526 before closing the day around 1.4510 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German June Import Prices forecast at 0.7% vs. 1.6% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was volatile testing support under Y78 before surging on intervention rumors to Y78.70 in 15 minutes. The gains were reversed almost as fast and fresh lows were seen in the US session as Dollar weakness dominated. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 77.81 and a high of 78.71 before closing the day around 77.90 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was one of the strongest currencies in the market with the Q2 GDP impressing with the 0.2% in line with expectations but a note from the statistics agency saying without Japan/Royal Wedding the number would have been closer to 0.7%. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6264 and a high of 1.6430 before closing the day at 1.6415 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July CBI Orders forecast at -2 vs. 1 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the Euro higher able to ignore the falls in the stock markets with USD weakness the main story. RBA Governor Steven's speech helped lift as well with positive comments on the economic outlook ahead of today all important CPI numbers. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0820 and a high of 1.0970 before closing the day at 1.0960 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q2 CPI forecast at 0.7% vs. 1.6% q/q.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Investors flooded into Gold with the precious metal supported on US downgrade fears and closing near all time highs at $1620. Overall trading with a low of USD$1607 and high of USD $1620 before ending the New York session at USD$1619 an ounce. Oil was the most volatile dropping after US data before reversing sharply when US stocks opened and tested $100. WTI Oil Closed +$0.30 at $99.50 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4134

1.4324

1.4510

1.4578

1.4653

USD/JPY

76.61

77.74

77.85

79.03

80.83

GBP/USD

1.6121

1.6262

1.6430

1.6473

1.6547

AUD/USD

1.0694

1.0796

1.1035

1.1059

1.1198

XAU/USD

1584.00

1599

1623

1628

1632

OIL/USD

95.00



98.00

99.10

100.00

100.50



Euro - 1.4510

Initial support at 1.4324 (Jul 22 low) followed by 1.4134 (Jul 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4578 (Jul 4 high) followed by 1.4653 (Jul 5 high)



Yen - 77.85

Initial support is located at 77.74 (79.60 minus 0.618 of 81.48-78.47) followed by 76.61 (79.60 minus 81.48-78.47). Initial resistance is now at 79.03 (Jun 21 high) followed by 80.83 (Jul 11 high).

Pound - 1.6430

Initial support at 1.6262 (Jul 25 low) followed by 1.6121 (Jul 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6473 (Jun 7 high) followed by 1.6547 (Jun 14 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.1035

Initial support at 1.0796 (Jul 25 low) followed by the 1.0694 (Jun 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.1059 (0.9706 plus 0.618 of 1.0256-0.8073) followed by 1.1198 (1.0391 plus 0.618 of 0.9706-1.1012).

Gold - 1623

Initial support at 1599 (Jul 25 low) followed by 184 (Jul 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 1628 (1462.45 plus 0.618 of 1308.25-1577.57) followed by 1632 (1608.10 plus 0.618 of 1624.07-1584.23).



Oil - 99.10

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 100.50 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall