U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar finished softer in a big event day as the stock market was able to rebound higher Friday. News of a Major earthquake in Japan hurt sentiment in late Asia but the market was impressed by a new Euro group agreement on Bailouts and falling Oil in the US session. In US stocks, DJIA +59 points closing at 12044, S&P +9 points closing at 1304 and NASDAQ +14 points closing at 2715. Looking ahead, Daylight Saving Time Over.

The Euro (EUR) surged higher on Friday the start of the Week on Monday on the news that the Eurogroup meeting had agreed to increase the size of the bailout fund and allow new forms of market intervention. This allowed the Euro to rally across the board and help lift most pairs against the Dollar. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3750 and a high of 1.3914 before closing the day around 1.3903 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February Industrial Production forecast at 0.3% vs. -0.1% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely volatile gaining sharply as the safe haven Yen was bought on news of a major earthquake. Japanese Investors caused the Yen to gain as they repatriated overseas money in the times of uncertainty. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.64 and a high of 83.29 before closing the day around 81.88 in the New York session. Looking Ahead, BOJ Rate Decision forecast to remain at 0.1% but could announce new emergency measures to support the economy.

The Sterling (GBP) tested 1.6000 before reversing and gaining with the Euro and US stocks. February PPI rose 1.1% vs. 1.4%. EUR/GBP pushed higher breaking to 4 month highs above 0.8670 and could be poised to break out higher. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5975 and a high of 1.6080 before closing the day at 1.6070 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke below 1.0000 briefly before surging higher on the EU Bailout agreement and jump in US stocks. The outlook is mixed with the 1.000-1.0200 range holding for the last few weeks with risk to upside and downside balanced. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9966 and a high of 1.0158 before closing the day at 1.0150 in the New York session.  

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold found support on the USD weakness and Japanese safe haven buying. Overall trading with a low of USD$1404 and high of USD $1424 before ending the New York session at USD$1417 an ounce. Fell heavily for a second day as the 'day of rage' protests in Saudi Arabia fizzled out. The market may continue to fall on Japanese demand drop concerns. WTI Oil Closed -$1.54 at $101.16 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3705

1.3744

1.3925

1.3989

1.4036

USD/JPY

81.13

81.57

82.15

83.54

83.98

GBP/USD

1.5845

1.5962

1.6050

1.6243

1.6344

AUD/USD

0.9898

0.9944

1.0070

1.0134

1.0256

XAU/USD

1399.00

1403

1424

1432

1458

OIL/USD

98.00



99.50

99.70

100.00

101.50





Euro - 1.3925

Initial support at 1.3744 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.3705 (Feb 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3989 (Mar 8 high) followed by 1.4036 (Mar 7 high)



Yen - 82.15

Initial support is located at 81.57 (Mar 2 low) followed by 81.13 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.54 (Feb 22 high) followed by 83.98 (Feb 16 High).

Pound - 1.6050

Initial support at 1.5962 (38.2% retrace of 1.5345-1.6344) followed by 1.5845 (50% retrace of 1.5345-1.6344). Initial resistance is now at 1.6243 (March 9 low) followed by 1.6344 (Mar 2 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0070

Initial support at 0.9944 (Feb 15 low) followed by the 0.9898 (76.4% retrace of 0.9804-1.0202). Initial resistance is now at 1.0134 (Mar 8 high) followed by 1.0202 (Mar 1 high).

Gold - 1424

Initial support at 1403 (Mar 10 low) followed by 1399 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1432 (Mar 10 high) followed by 1458 (1410.32 plus 1392.65-1440.32).



Oil - 99.70

Initial support at 99.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Big figure resistance) followed by 101.50 (intraday resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall