Daily Outlook - ECB Meeting Ahead, Raise Rates Tonight?

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) we on the back foot ahead of the key ECB meeting as the market pushed to year highs on many pairs. US stocks traded at 2 year highs, and this helped USD/JPY to remain strong. A new story that could potential affect markets is the US budget showdown in the Senate threatening to shutdown the government. In US stocks, DJIA +32 points closing at 12426, S&P +3 points closing at 1335 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2799. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 385k vs. 388k previously.

The Euro (EUR) pushed higher ahead of the eagerly anticipated ECB Meeting today with anything less than a hike going to disappoint the bulls. German Factory Orders increased 2.4% vs. 0.6% m/m previously.  Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4227 and a high of 1.4351 before closing the day around 1.4333 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April ECB Rate Meeting forecast to hike 0.25% to 1.25%. President Trichet also speaks after the announcement.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to be pressured as the new trend sent most pairs higher. USD/JPY move up to Y85.50 resistance but crosses traded at fresh year highs. EUR/JPY traded above Y122 to fresh post Debt crisis highs. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 84.82 and a high of 85.55 before closing the day around 85.25 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro higher into the start of Europe but was hit hard by the sharp drop in UK industrial Production by -1.2%m/m in February. GBP/JPY tested Y140 and help limit losses in the Cable. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6255 and a high of 1.6367 before closing the day at 1.6330 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Rate Announcement widely forecast to hold at 0.5%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke above 1.0400 resistance and grinding higher supported on AUD/JPY buying and the high interest rate differential between Australia and other developed countries. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0327 and a high of 1.0453 before closing the day at 1.0430 in the New York session. UPDATE MARCH EMPLOYMENT CHANGE +37k vs. +22k forecast.

Oil & Gold (XAU) consolidated gains and tested resistance above $1460 an ounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$1451 and high of USD $1462 before ending the New York session at USD$1454 an ounce. Oil tested above $109 but fell back to more comfortable levels as gains slowed. WTI Oil Closed +$0.49 at $108.83 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4152

1.4208

1.4300

1.4373

1.4414

USD/JPY

84.03

84.51

85.30

85.62

86.00

GBP/USD

1.5972

1.6091

1.6275

1.6401

1.6500

AUD/USD

1.0205

1.0269

1.0450

1.0500

1.0640

XAU/USD

1430.00

1447

1453

1460

1480

OIL/USD

105.00

108.00

108.50

110.00

111.00

Euro - 1.4300

Initial support at 1.4208 (Apr 6 low) followed by 1.4152 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4373 (76.4% retrace of 1.5144-1.1877) followed by 1.4414 (Jan 19 2010 high)

Yen - 85.30

Initial support is located at 84.51 (Dec 51 low) followed by 84.03 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.62 (50% retrace of 94.99-76.25) followed by 86.00 (Big Figure Resistance).

Pound - 1.6275

Initial support at 1.6091 (Apr 5 low) followed by 1.5972 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6401 (March 22 high) followed by 1.6500 (Big Figure Resistance).

Australian Dollar - 1.0450

Initial support at 1.0269 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 1.0205 (Mar 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0500 (Big Figure Resistance) followed by 1.0640 (0.8771 plus 1.618 of 0.8067-0.9222).

Gold - 1453

Initial support at 1447 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1430 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1460 (Big Figure) followed by 1480 (Big Figure).

Oil - 108.50

Initial support at 108.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 108.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 110.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 111.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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