U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks markets enjoyed a positive close as news spread that Egyptian President Mubarak would be stepping down and tensions in the Arab state eased. Oil moved back on the news after the commodity received support in recent weeks due to the turmoil. In US stocks, DJIA +43 points closing at 12273, S&P +7 points closing at 1328 and NASDAQ +18 points closing at 2809. Looking ahead, February NAHB Housing Market is forecast at 17 vs. 16 previously.

The Euro (EUR) the market continued buying the USD on broad demand and the Euro was pushed down to 1.3500 major support. Euro underperformance has been noted in recent trading sessions with traders making money from selling into rallies. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3498 and a high of 1.3621 before closing the day around 1.3550 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December Industrial Production is forecast at 0% vs. 1.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) pushed higher on the improving outlook for the US economy while the Japanese economy continued to remain sluggish. The USD/JPY could be a major mover this year having suffered greatly in the past couple of years. Resistance was found above Y83.70 but the outlook is improving after Y80 was avoided. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.21 and a high of 83.67 before closing the day around 83.44 in the New York session. UPDATE Q4 GDP at -0.3% vs. -0.5% forecast Q/Q.

The Sterling (GBP) fell back with the Euro to test support at 1.6000 which cautiously held into the weekend. Outlook is mixed with inflation vs. weak growth seen hampering the Pounds recovery this year. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5965 and a high of 1.6111 before closing the day at 1.6012 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell aggressively as RBA Governor Stevens talked down the prospect of future rate hikes and noted concern that recent floods will knock 1% off GDP this year. The positive end to Egypt protests sent the Aussie off lows, closing just above parity. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9962 and a high of 1.0045 before closing the day at 1.0019 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) stayed inside the recent range orbiting around $1360. Overall trading with a low of USD$1354 and high of USD $1367 before ending the New York session at USD$1358 an ounce. Fell back on the resignation of Mubarak as supply concerns eased. WTI Oil Closed $1.15 at $85.58 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3449

1.3482

1.3540

1.3621

1.3736

USD/JPY

81.13

82.34

83.20

83.68

83.91

GBP/USD

1.5922

1.5953

1.6055

1.6113

1.6138

AUD/USD

0.9897

0.9955

1.0040

1.0045

1.0137

XAU/USD

1343.00

1348

1357

1371

1379

OIL/USD

82.50

85.00

85.70

86.50

88.00





Euro - 1.3540

Initial support at 1.3482 (38.2% retrace of 1.2867-1.3862) followed by 1.3449 (Jan 21 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3621 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.3736 (Feb 10 High)



Yen - 83.20

Initial support is located at 82.34 (Feb 10 low) followed by 81.13 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.68 (Jan 7 high) followed by 83.91 (Dec 21 high).

Pound - 1.6055

Initial support at 1.5953 (61.8% retrace of 1.5752-1.6279) followed by 1.5922 (38.2% retrace of 1.5345-1.6279). Initial resistance is now at 1.6113 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.6138 (Feb 10 High).



Australian Dollar - 1.0040

Initial support at 0.9955 (61.8% retrace of 0.9804-1.02) followed by the 0.9897 (76.4% retrace of 0.9804-1.02). Initial resistance is now at 1.0045 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.0137 (Jan 10 high).

Gold - 1357

Initial support at 1348 (Feb 8 low) followed by 1343 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1371 (Jan 20 high) followed by 1379 (Jan 19 high).



Oil - 85.70

Initial support at 85.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall