U.S. Dollar Trading (US) saw day highs in early Europe ahead for the EU summit announcement on Greece which reversed risk appetite and sparked a global equity rally. Weekly Jobless claims came in at 418k vs. 405k previously but July Philly Fed rebounded to +3.2 vs. -7.7 previously. In US stocks, DJIA +152 points closing at 12724, S&P +17 points closing at 1343 and NASDAQ +20 points closing at 2834.

The Euro (EUR) fell to 1.4150 in early European trade before staging a remarkably rally on the Greece plan announcement and trading above 1.4400. EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP both enjoyed good gains in a broad Euro rally. In addition to assisting Greece we saw interest rates on loans on Ireland and Portugal lowered to help their ability to repay. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4137 and a high of 1.4439 before closing the day around 1.4410 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German IFO forecast at 113.8 vs. 114.5 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained against the USD but was very weak against the crosses as stocks markets surged. EUR/JPY rallied above Y113 and could be poised for further gains after finding support at Y110 and the EU debt agreement was reached. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 78.21 and a high of 79.05 before closing the day around 78.50 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke out of the range to the topside and surged to 1.6300 before stabilizing in the close. EUR/GBP climbed back above 0.8800 as the Euro outperformed. June Retail Sales were strong at 0.7% vs. -1.3% previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6119 and a high of 1.6344 before closing the day at 1.6325 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke above resistance at 1.0800 as risk appetite surged post EU summit plan and is looking to 1.1000 in coming days. AUD/JPY is back above Y85 and is an important cross for providing fresh direction to the major. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0692 and a high of 1.0844 before closing the day at 1.0825 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) the market sold the alternative currency Gold on easing sovereign debt fears Overall trading with a low of USD$1584 and high of USD $1604 before ending the New York session at USD$1590 an ounce. Oil broke out of the range to the topside above $99 and is within striking distance of $100. WTI Oil Closed +$0.73 at $99.10 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4069

1.4134

1.4385

1.4467

1.4554

USD/JPY

76.25

78.00

78.60

79.70

80.83

GBP/USD

1.6069

1.6121

1.6310

1.6366

1.6442

AUD/USD

1.0598

1.0694

1.0825

1.0889

1.0953

XAU/USD

1564.00

1572

1591

1613

1628

OIL/USD

98.00



99.00

99.35

100.00

100.50



Euro - 1.4385

Initial support at 1.4134 (Jul 20 low) followed by 1.4069 (Jul 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4467 (Jul 6 high) followed by 1.4554 (Jul 5 high)



Yen - 78.60

Initial support is located at 78.00 (Big Figure support) followed by 76.25 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 79.70 (Jun 8 high) followed by 80.83 (Jul 11 high).

Pound - 1.6310

Initial support at 1.6121 (Jul 21 low) followed by 1.6069 (Jul 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6366 (76.4% retrace of 1.6547-1.5781) followed by 1.6442 (Jun 14 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0825

Initial support at 1.0694 (Jul 21 low) followed by the 1.0598 (Jun 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0889 (May 11 high) followed by 1.0953 (May 3 high).

Gold - 1591

Initial support at 1572 (Jul 14 low) followed by 1564 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1613 (Channel upper drawn from Jul 1 low on 60 min chart) followed by 1628 (1462.45 plus 0.618 of 1577.57-1308.25).



Oil - 99.35

Initial support at 99.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 100.50 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall