Daily Outlook - FOMC US INTEREST RATE MEETING AHEAD

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the dollar was mixed as a heavy commodity sell off competed with a strong Euro. January Consumer Confidence improved to 60.6 vs. 53.3 previously. November Case Shiller House Price Index forecast at -0.5% vs. -1.0% forecast. In US stocks, DJIA -3 points closing at 11977, S&P +1 points closing at 1291 and NASDAQ +2 points closing at 2719. Looking ahead, FOMC Rate Decision forecast to hold at 0-0.25% band. Also Released, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 0.9m vs. 2.6m.

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.3700 going into Europe before heavy Cable sales and weak commodities helped profit takers gain control. The market was well supported on the dip however and ended near day highs. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3571 and a high of 1.3706 before closing at 1.3680. Looking ahead, December German Import Prices are forecast at 1.3% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell back towards Y82 in the US session on speculation that Obama would push for a freeze on certain US Government spending helping yields on US treasuries to fall. The BOJ held at 0.1% as forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 81.96 and a high of 82.69 before closing the day around 82.15 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was crushed lower in European trading a very large fall in Q4 GDP at -0.5% vs. +0.5% forecast. EUR/GBP soared above 0.8600 and GBP/JPY fell below Y130. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5749 and a high of 1.6020 before closing the day at 1.5820 in the New York session. Looking ahead, MPC Rate Meeting Minutes Released.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakness in Oil and Gold led the Aussie lower, with 0.9900 and 1.0000 containing the day's action. Support for the Aussie still remains but the outlook is much harder with Chinese fears and USD strength going forward. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9889 and a high of 0.9995 before closing the US session at 0.9960.

Oil & Gold (XAU) took another leg lower finding support in the lower $1320 region before a small bounce into the close. Overall trading with a low of USD$1322 and high of USD $1339 before ending the New York session at USD$1332 an ounce. Oil fell another $1 a barrel as the correction continued. WTI Oil Closed -$1.10 at $86.60 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3449

1.3541

1.3685

1.3741

1.3786

USD/JPY

81.61

81.89

82.10

83.15

84.11

GBP/USD

1.5618

1.5702

1.5805

1.6017

1.6059

AUD/USD

0.9753

0.9864

0.9965

1.0009

1.0077

XAU/USD

1300.00

1319

1334

1353

1371

OIL/USD

82.50

85.00

86.60

87.00

89.00

Euro - 1.3685

Initial support at 1.3541 (Jan 24 low) followed by 1.3449 (Jan 21 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3741 (61.8% retrace of 1.4282-1.2867) followed by 1.3786 (Nov 22 high)

Yen - 82.10

Initial support is located at 81.89 (Jan 5 low) followed by 81.61 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.15 (Jan 13 high) followed by 84.11 (Dec 20 high).

Pound - 1.5805

Initial support at 1.5702 (50 % retrace of 1.5345-1.6059) followed by 1.5618 (61.8% retrace of 1.5345-1.6059). Initial resistance is now at 1.6017 (Jan 25 high) followed by 1.6059 (Jan 18 High).

Australian Dollar - 0.9965

Initial support at 0.9864 (Jan 24 low) followed by the 0.9753 (Dec 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0009 (Jan 20 High) followed by 1.0077 (Jan 19 high).

Gold - 1334

Initial support at 1319 (Oct 27 low) followed by 1300 (Rounds Number). Initial resistance is now at 1353 (Jan 24 high) followed by 1371 (Jan 20 high).

Oil - 86.60

Initial support at 85.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 87.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 89.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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