U.S. Dollar Trading (US) stocks markets lurched higher but most FX pairs ran into profit taking at highs and pulled back after large gains in recent sessions. June Chicago PMI jumped to 61.1 vs. 56.6 previously and bucked the recent trend of poorer sentiment surveys. In US stocks, DJIA +152 points closing at 12414, S&P +13 points closing at 1320 and NASDAQ +33 points closing at 2773. Looking ahead, June PMI Manufacturing forecast at 51.8 vs. 53.5 previously.

The Euro (EUR) broke above 1.4500 in Asia but topped out above the key level and found profit taking pressure for the rest of the day. The market has had major gains in the last few sessions so some consolidation is healthy for the bulls before trying to push another leg higher. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4446 and a high of 1.4539 before closing the day around 1.4480 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June PMI Manufacturing forecast at 54.9 vs. 54.9 previously. May Unemployment Rate forecast at 9.9%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) found support at Y80.25 before bouncing on the surprisingly strong Chicago PMI data. Most crosses struggled to extend gains and range traded for most of the day although well supported. GBP/JPY is still below key resistance at Y130 after underperforming the recent sessions. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.25 and a high of 80.87 before closing the day around 80.60 in the New York session. UPDATE Q2 TANKAN -9 vs. 6 previously.

The Sterling (GBP) Was under pressure due to heavy EUR/GBP buying translating in Cable losses. Support was found under 1.6000 but the market is fragile and playing the game of the least worst when comparing GBP and USD. Next week's BOE meeting will potentially further damage the Sterling if they increase the Asset Purchase Program as the previous meeting minutes suggested they might. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5971 and a high of 1.6120 before closing the day at 1.6040 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June PMI Manufacturing forecast at 52.1.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke above 1.0700 in the Asian session and surged towards 1.0750 on stop losses before consolidating and pulling back to the key level for the rest of the day. AUD/JPY also entered a consolidation phase after moving above Y86 and running into sellers. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0684 and a high of 1.0752 before closing the day at 1.0705 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold Pulled back to the magnetic $1500 level as further gains failed to materialize. Overall trading with a low of USD$1498 and high of USD $1514 before ending the New York session at USD$1500 an ounce. Oil made small gains breaking above the $95 level in a positive technical development. WTI Oil Closed +$0.65 at $95.40 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4237

1.4333

1.4475

1.4551

1.4653

USD/JPY

80.00

80.29

80.75

81.33

81.63

GBP/USD

1.5822

1.5881

1.6025

1.6200

1.6263

AUD/USD

1.0436

1.0520

1.0705

1.0775

1.0865

XAU/USD

1485.00

1490

1500

1526

1549

OIL/USD

92.50



95.00

95.15

98.00

100.00



Euro - 1.4475

Initial support at 1.4333 (Jun 29 low) followed by 1.4103 (Jun 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4551 (Jun 10 high) followed by 1.4653 (Jun 9 high)



Yen - 80.75

Initial support is located at 80.29 (Jun 27 low) followed by 80.00 (Key Support). Initial resistance is now at 81.33 (Jun 2 high) followed by 81.63 (76.4% retrace of 82.23-79.7).

Pound - 1.6025

Initial support at 1.5881 (61.8% retrace of 1.5345-1.6747) followed by 1.5822 (Jan 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6200 (Psych Resistance) followed by 1.6263 (Jun 22 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0705

Initial support at 1.0520 (Jun 29 low) followed by the 1.0436 (Jun 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0775 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.0865 (76.4% retrace of 1.1012-1.0391).

Gold - 1500

Initial support at 1490 (Jun 27 low) followed by 1485 (76.4% retrace of 1462.45-1558.25). Initial resistance is now at 1526 (June 24 high) followed by 1523 (Jun 23 high).



Oil - 95.15

Initial support at 95.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall