Daily Outlook - Gold Back on the Move

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) ended the day substantially lower after initially gaining on the back of Euro weakness. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 382k vs. 387k previously in a continuation of strong US Jobs data. US Durable Goods were weak at -0.9% m/m. In US stocks, DJIA +84 points closing at 12170, S&P +12 points closing at 1309 and NASDAQ +38 points closing at 2736. Looking ahead, March Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast 68 vs. 68.2 previously.

The Euro (EUR) was volatile hitting day lows into Europe on the rating downgrades of Portugal and Spanish banks before reversing higher on strong economic data and EU summit optimism. March Service PMI jumped to 56.9 vs. 56.4 previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4053 and a high of 1.4222 before closing the day around 1.4180 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March German IFO forecast at 110.5 vs. 111.2 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was contained against the USD trapped by real money selling on the topside and BOJ support on the downside. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY surged towards recent months highs as the majors move to year highs. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.75 and a high of 81.08 before closing the day around 80.95 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP was under a lot of pressure as the market react to weak economic data and sharp moves on crosses. EUR/GBP broke to multimonth highs hitting 0.8800 and threatening to reverse a 2 year down trend. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6089 and a high of 1.6270 before closing the day at 1.6115 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie reclaimed 1.0200 and is in striking distance of all time highs just above 1.0250. AUD/NZD found itself lower on the day though after technical resistance at 1.3700 inspired a pullback. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0111 and a high of 1.0231 before closing the day at 1.0200 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) extended gains to fresh all time highs above $1445 before reversing sharply to $1430. Overall trading with a low of USD$1423 and high of USD $1448 before ending the New York session at USD$1433 an ounce. Ended roughly unchanged but rallied above $106.50 during the day. WTI Oil Closed +$0.35 at $105.40 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3981

1.4053

1.4180

1.4215

1.4249

USD/JPY

78.83

80.00

81.00

82.01

82.45

GBP/USD

1.5977

1.6061

1.6120

1.6401

1.6517

AUD/USD

0.9932

1.0038

1.0195

1.0218

1.0256

XAU/USD

1400.00

1425

1433

1447

1450

OIL/USD

100.00

103.50

105.80

107.00

110.00

Euro - 1.4180

Initial support at 1.4053 (Mar 24 low) followed by 1.3981 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4215 (Mar 23 high) followed by 1.4249 (Mar 22 high)

Yen - 81.00

Initial support is located at 80.00 (Major Level) followed by 78.83 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 82.01 (Mar 15 high) followed by 82.45 (Mar 14 High).

Pound - 1.6120

Initial support at 1.6061 (Mar 18 low) followed by 1.5977 (Mar 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6401 (Mar 22 high) followed by 1.6517 (Dec 7 2009 high).

Australian Dollar - 1.0195

Initial support at 1.0038 (Mar 22 low) followed by the 0.9932 (Mar 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0218 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.0256 (Dec 31 high).

Gold - 1433

Initial support at 1425 (Mar 23 low) followed by 1400 (Round Number). Initial resistance is now at 1448 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1450 (Round Number).

Oil - 105.80

Initial support at 103.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 107.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 110.00 (Year High).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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