U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the Dollar was on the front foot yesterday with risk aversion present in both Equities and Commodities. The strength was pared back in the US session however with hope of a Greece deal and US debt Ceiling debate still ongoing. In US stocks, DJIA -94 points closing at 12385, S&P -10 points closing at 1305 and NASDAQ -27 points closing at 2765. Looking ahead, June Housing Starts forecast at 0.575m vs. 0.56m previously. Also, Bank of Canada Rate Decision forecast at 1.0%.

The Euro (EUR) hit lows in Europe before stock markets rebounded and hope grew an EU meeting on Thursday will announce an immediate package to support Greece. The market is still very cautious of a contagion in the Debt crisis with Spain/Italy still under pressure and Portugal/Ireland wanting more assistance. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4013 and a high of 1.4137 before closing the day around 1.4125 in the New York session.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to do very little against the Dollar with most of the action on the crosses which are being sold on rallies in the risk averse environment. The levels are close to BOJ intervention levels from after the Earthquake and could find more jawboning from Japanese officials. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 78.93 and a high of 79.19 before closing the day around 79.05 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was a noted underperformer with EUR/GBP rebounding and Cable dropping below the 1.6100 level after the recent rally ran out of steam. The outlook is very mixed with more range trading expected until the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook is more clearly outlined. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6003 and a high of 1.6130 before closing the day at 1.6060 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was pushed lower with the Euro in risk off trading in Asia and Europe and rebounded aggressively with Gold breaking above $1600 and the USD coming under pressure. AUD/NZD hit multi month lows as the NZD outperforms on strong Inflation and rate hike expectations. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0559 and a high of 1.0646 before closing the day at 1.0620 in the New York session. Looking ahead, RBA July Meeting Minutes Released.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Another day another record high for the precious metal with Gold breaking $1600 an ounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$1591 and high of USD $1607 before ending the New York session at USD$1603 an ounce. Oil tested and rebound from $95 a barrel for the second time in recent sessions and could be forming an important support at the level. WTI Oil Closed -$1.31 at $95.93 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3837

1.4007

1.4125

1.4200

1.4375

USD/JPY

76.25

78.00

79.15

80.38

80.83

GBP/USD

1.5781

1.5906

1.6075

1.6177

1.6300

AUD/USD

1.0520

1.0580

1.0645

1.0746

1.0889

XAU/USD

1564.00

1572

1603

1613

1628

OIL/USD

92.50



95.00

96.70

98.00

99.00



Euro - 1.4125

Initial support at 1.4007 (61.8% retrace of 1.3837-1.4282) followed by 1.3837 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4200 (Jul 15 high) followed by 1.4375 (Jul 7 high)



Yen - 79.15

Initial support is located at 78.00 (Big Figure support) followed by 76.25 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 80.38 (Jul 12 high) followed by 80.83 (Jul 11 high).

Pound - 1.6075

Initial support at 1.5906 (Jul 13 low) followed by 1.5781 (Jul 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6177 (Jul 15 high) followed by 1.6300 (Big Figure).



Australian Dollar - 1.0645

Initial support at 1.0580 (Jul 13 low) followed by the 1.0520 (Jun 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0746 (Jul 15 high) followed by 1.0889 (May 11 high).

Gold - 1603

Initial support at 1572 (Jul 14 low) followed by 1564 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1613 (Channel upper drawn from Jul 1 low on 60 min chart) followed by 1628 (1462.45 plus 0.618 of 1577.57-1308.25).



Oil - 96.70

Initial support at 95.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 99.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall