Daily Outlook - Gold Pushing Daily Record Highs

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U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD hit fresh year lows against most currencies in Europe overnight but pared back those losses in the US session on profit taking. Weekly Jobless claims jumped to 429k vs. 392k expected. Q1 GDP also missed at 1.8% vs. 2.0% forecast Q/Q. In US stocks, DJIA +72 points closing at 12763, S&P +4 points closing at 1359 and NASDAQ +2 points closing at 2872. Looking ahead, April Chicago PMI forecast at 68.5 vs. 70.6 previously. Also ahead, April UoM Consumer sentiment forecast at 61.3 vs. 61.2.

The Euro (EUR) was strong for most of the day finding support below 1.4800 on a few attempts lower throughout the day. German Unemployment fell -37k in a continuation of strong jobs data in the biggest economy in Europe. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4772 and a high of 1.4883 before closing the day around 1.4820 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March German Retail Sales forecast at 0.3% vs. -0.3% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very quiet on the major with USD/JPY trading inside a 40 pip range during the US and European sessions given weak US data hurting sentiment. Crosses are also being watched closely with AUD/JPY approaching the Y90 level. The BOJ Held at 0.1% as forecast. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.38 and a high of 82.29 before closing the day around 82.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) the goodwill towards the pounded faded in the US session and EUR/GBP broke back above 0.8900. GBP underperformance has been evident in recent week with the UK economic recovery lagging most developed countries. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6622 and a high of 1.6749 before closing the day at 1.6645 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was well supported on a dip below 1.0900 and ended near all-time highs. Strong commodities led by silver and gold helped encourage the Aussie to push higher. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0861 and a high of 1.0950 before closing the day at 1.0930 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold pushed new highs but found bouts of volatility due to sharp profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$1524 and high of USD $1538 before ending the New York session at USD$1534 an ounce. Crude Oil traded at fresh multiyear highs before reversing to $112. WTI Oil Closed -$0.70 at $113.20 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4633

1.4769

1.4830

1.4905

1.5000

USD/JPY

80.89

81.27

81.60

82.60

83.27

GBP/USD

1.6432

1.6500

1.6650

1.6846

1.7000

AUD/USD

1.0775

1.0852

1.0910

1.1000

1.1100

XAU/USD

1477.00

1492

1533

1542

1550

OIL/USD

110.00

112.00

112.45

114.00

115.00

Euro – 1.4830

Initial support at 1.4769 (April 28 Low) followed by 1.4633 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4905 (Dec 7 2009 high) followed by 1.5000 (Big Figure Resistance)

Yen – 81.60

Initial support is located at 81.27 (Mar 27 low) followed by 80.89 (50% retrace of 76.25-85.53). Initial resistance is now at 82.60 (Apr 21 low) followed by 83.27 (Apr 18 High).

Pound – 1.6650

Initial support at 1.6500 (psychological support) followed by 1.6432 (Apr 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6846 (Nov 18, 2009 high) followed by 1.6898 (trendline resistance drawn of Aug 6, 2010 high).

Australian Dollar – 1.0910

Initial support at 1.0852 (Apr 28 low) followed by the 1.0775 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.1000 (big figure resistance) followed by 1.1100 (big figure resistance).

Gold – 1533

Initial support at 1501 (Apr 27 low) followed by 1492 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1542 (1445.68 plus 1381.22-1478.18) followed by 1550 (Big level resistance).

Oil – 112.45

Initial support at 112.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 110.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 114.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 115.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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