U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the passing of the much anticipated Greece austerity vote encouraged a further extension of the relief rally seen in most markets in the previous two sessions. May Pending Home Sales rose +8.2% vs. -11.6% previously. In US stocks, DJIA +72 points closing at 12261, S&P +10 points closing at 1307 and NASDAQ +11 points closing at 2740. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 420k vs. 429k previously. Also released, June Chicago PMI forecast at 54 vs. 56.6 previously.

The Euro (EUR) highs were seen in Europe above 1.4400 but the market was volatile after the vote with concerns that a debt rollover would be still a credit event. The market was strong into the US close though and near day highs with stock markets enjoying a strong rally. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4327 and a high of 1.4486 before closing the day around 1.4445 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May Retail Sales forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.6%. June Unemployment Rate forecast at 7% vs. 7% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) The major broke back below Y81 on USD weakness after the vote but crosses were strong and helped to limit USD/JPY downside. AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY led the risk appetite rally higher and could threaten a new uptrend. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.54 and a high of 81.20 before closing the day around 80.60 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) pushed higher with general risk on trade but the relentless rise of EUR/GBP which broke above 0.9000 capped Cable gains. May Mortgage approvals increased to 45.9k vs. 45.2k previously but slightly less than 46.1k forecast and still very low. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5968 and a high of 1.6082 before closing the day at 1.6075 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Nationwide Prices forecast at 0 vs. 0.3% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was one of the strongest currencies in the market with the risk currency surging to 1.0700 with the improving investor mood. The market is ready for more gains but attention is still been made towards China data later in the week. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0517 and a high of 1.0704 before closing the day at 1.0685 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold took advantage of the weak USD to push above $1510. Overall trading with a low of USD$1500 and high of USD $1513 before ending the New York session at USD$1511 an ounce. Oil extended the rebound back to the key $95 resistance. WTI Oil Closed +1.88 at $94.77 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4103

1.4237

1.4465

1.4498

1.4551

USD/JPY

80.00

80.29

80.60

81.33

81.63

GBP/USD

1.5822

1.5881

1.6075

1.6200

1.6263

AUD/USD

1.0390

1.0436

1.0705

1.0726

1.0800

XAU/USD

1485.00

1490

1511

1526

1549

OIL/USD

90.00



92.50

94.85

95.00

98.00



Euro - 1.4465

Initial support at 1.4237 (Jun 28 low) followed by 1.4103 (Jun 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4498 (Jun 14 high) followed by 1.4551 (Jun 10 high)



Yen - 80.60

Initial support is located at 80.29 (Jun 27 low) followed by 80.00 (Key Support). Initial resistance is now at 81.33 (Jun 2 high) followed by 81.63 (76.4% retrace of 82.23-79.7).

Pound - 1.6075

Initial support at 1.5881 (61.8% retrace of 1.5345-1.6747) followed by 1.5822 (Jan 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6200 (Psych Resistance) followed by 1.6263 (Jun 22 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0705

Initial support at 1.0436 (Jun 28 low) followed by the 1.0390 (Apr 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0726 (Jun 8 high) followed by 1.0800 (Big Figure Resistance).

Gold - 1511

Initial support at 1490 (Jun 27 low) followed by 1485 (76.4% retrace of 1462.45-1558.25). Initial resistance is now at 1526 (June 24 high) followed by 1523 (Jun 23 high).



Oil - 94.85

Initial support at 92.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 95.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall