U.S. Dollar Trading (US) some improving sentiment in European and US stock markets saw the USD give up some of its recent gains against most Currencies and Commodities. May Core PCE Price Index increased 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and is watched by the US FED as an inflation indicator. In US stocks, DJIA +13 points closing at 12003, S&P +1 points closing at 1277 and NASDAQ +6 points closing at 2255. Looking ahead, June Consumer Confidence forecast at 60.5 vs. 60.8 previously.

The Euro (EUR) while the market waits for the Greek Austerity vote on Wednesday speculation that a Debt rollover will find support from private stakeholders and comments that China will support the Eurozone helped the EUR/USD rebound back to 1.4300. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4101 and a high of 1.4331 before closing the day around 1.4320 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July German Consumer Sentiment forecast at 5.3 vs. 5.5 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely contained against the major in a 40 pip range all day with most of the action once again on the EUR/JPY. The EUR/JPY is the 3rd biggest pair on volume in the market and is often not given enough attention. Y115 has been an important pivot point over the last few months and last night the pair broke back above the key level. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.45 and a high of 80.99 before closing the day around 80.75 in the New York session. UPDATE May Retail Sales at -1.3% y/y vs. -4.8% y/y previously.

The Sterling (GBP) The downside is becoming slightly exhausted against the USD with Cable finding support towards 1.5900 and testing 1.6000. EUR/GBP is under pressure though with the major cross extending above 0.8900 and could retest the very critical 0.9000 level and major psychological resistance. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5911 and a high of 1.6015 before closing the day at 1.5980 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q1 GDP Forecast unchanged at 0.5%. Also ahead, Inflation Report Hearing.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) risk aversion and stock market weakness is hurting the Aussie in recent sessions after breaking 1.0500 support. Commodities have been under a lot of pressure lately with Oil leading the way down and Gold also being liquidated. Concerns over China growth cool down is adding to the uncertainty with the unshakeable Aussie bulls now under pressure. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0389 and a high of 1.0473 before closing the day at 1.0465 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold tested support under $1500 before closing at the figure. Overall trading with a low of USD$1490 and high of USD $1505 before ending the New York session at USD$1500 an ounce. Oil is pivoting the $90 a barrel level with bulls and bears now fighting at a much fairer value. WTI Oil Closed -0.55 at $90.61 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4002

1.4074

1.4300

1.4358

1.4459

USD/JPY

80.00

80.14

80.80

81.06

81.33

GBP/USD

1.5822

1.5881

1.5975

1.6075

1.6200

AUD/USD

1.0289

1.0390

1.0465

1.0502

1.0601

XAU/USD

1504.00

1485

1500

1526

1549

OIL/USD

89.00



90.00

90.60

92.50

95.00





Euro - 1.4300

Initial support at 1.4074 (Jun 16 low) followed by 1.4002 (May 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4358 (Jun 23 high) followed by 1.4459 (61.8% retrace of 1.4697-1.4074)



Yen - 80.80

Initial support is located at 80.14 (Jun 24 low) followed by 80.00 (Key Support). Initial resistance is now at 81.06 (Jun 16 high) followed by 81.33 (Jun 2 high).

Pound - 1.5975

Initial support at 1.5881 (61.8% retrace of 1.5345-1.6747) followed by 1.5822 (Jan 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6075 (Jun 23 high) followed by 1.6200 (Psych Resistance).



Australian Dollar - 1.0465

Initial support at 1.0390 (Apr 12 low) followed by the 1.0289 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0502 (Jun 27 high) followed by 1.0601 (Jun 24 high).

Gold - 1500

Initial support at 1485 (76.4% retrace of 1462.45-1558.25) followed by 1471 (May 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1526 (June 24 high) followed by 1523 (Jun 23 high).



Oil - 90.60

Initial support at 90.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 89.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 92.50 (Intraday resistance) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall