U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) some volatile trading post NFP on Friday with the mixed numbers leading to selling as the market was caught long. October Non Farm Payrolls came in at 80k vs. 95k forecast but this miss was offset by a revision higher of last month's figures. The negative feel in the market was added to by the lack of any meaningful resolution out of the G20 which completed its 2 day meeting on Friday. In US stocks, DJIA -61 points closing at 11983, S&P -7 points closing at 1253 and NASDAQ -11 points closing at 2686.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD popped above 1.3800 on Monday morning after news over the weekend that Greece had formed a national unity government to pass the EU bailout deal. The uncertainty still remains however and some negative developments in Italy are threatening to derail the recent rally. Looking ahead, September Retail Sales are forecast at -0.1% vs. -0.3% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) The market seems content to remain at Y78 level with even the US NonFarm Payrolls unable to generate significant movement. Yen Crosses are still behaving as a risk trade with stock market movements providing traders plenty of opportunity.
The Sterling (GBP) Cable Gyrated around the 1.6000 level on Friday with post NFP selling pushing the major to 1.5960 supports before buyers came back to close at 1.6040. EUR/GBP selling is providing plenty of support as the GBP now looks the more attractive option of the two pressured currencies. Looking ahead, Halifax House Prices forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.5% m/m.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) The AUD did well to remain buoyant on Friday with the risk currency leading on the way down after stock selling post US jobs. The market caught the pair at 1.0320 and a late US session rally sent the risk currency back to 1.0400. The outlook is closely tied to the EU/Italy/Greece headlines and the subsequent stock market volatility.
Oil & Gold (XAU) The US QE3 talk and ongoing Eurozone uncertainty provided a bullish mix for the precious metal. Oil bucked negative sentiment to finish close to the key $95 level.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD Italy the new Greece?
AUD/USD Stock Rally over?
|Currency||Sup 2||Sup 1||Spot||Res 1||Res 2|
Euro - 1.3795
Initial support at 1.3657 (Nov 3 low) followed by 1.3609 (Nov 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3871 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.4003 (61.8% retrace of 1.4247-1.3609)
Yen - 78.15
Initial support is located at 77.54 (50% retrace of 75.57-79.50) followed by 76.95 (61.8% retrace of 75.35-79.53). Initial resistance is now at 78.42 (Nov 2 high) followed by 78.98 (Nov 1 high).
Pound - 1.6030
Initial support at 1.5877 (Nov 3 low) followed by 1.5825 (38.2% retrace of 1.5272-1.6167). Initial resistance is now at 1.6097 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.6167 (Oct 31 high).
Australian Dollar - 1.0415
Initial support at 1.0203 (Oct 21 low) followed by the 1.0148 (Oct 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0447 (Nov 3 high) followed by 1.0567 (Nov 1 high).
Gold - 1758
Initial support at 1735 (38.2% retrace of 1681.73-1768.03) followed by 1714 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1772 (61.8% retrace of 1921.15-1532.72) followed by 1786 (Sept 22 high).
Oil - 94.50
Initial support at 92.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 95.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 96.50 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall