U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar lost ground as the market mood brightened and the safe haven was sold across the board. Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected at 397k vs. 400k forecast. US Services edged down to 52.9 vs. 53 initially. In US stocks, DJIA +208 points closing at 12044, S&P +23 points closing at 1261 and NASDAQ +57 points closing at 2697. Looking ahead, October Non farm Payrolls forecast at 95k vs. 103k previously. October Unemployment Rate forecast at 9.1%.
The Euro (EUR) the ECB cut rates to 1.25% from 1.5% as new President Draghi put his own stamp on the way the central bank was going to be run. The market sold the Euro initially but then bought it up aggressively as stock markets soared in response to Greece reversing its decision to have a referendum. Looking ahead, October PMI Services forecast at 52.1 vs. 52.1 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the stability continued at the Y78 level with the market playing the Yen against crosses. AUD/USD was in action reversing from Y80 to Y81.50 and EUR/JPY bounced to Y108 as sentiment improved. The US Jobs data is always a big event for the USD/JPY as it directly affect US monetary policy.
The Sterling (GBP) the market reversed higher with the EUR/USD as the dollar was sold and Cable reclaimed 1.6000. UK Services PMI dropped sharply to 51.3 vs. 52.9 as activity slipped. The outlook is looking more positive on recent developments in the EU although Italy is the biggest concern remaining.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) The AUD/USD led on the way up soaring to 1.0400 after testing 1.0200 in late Asian trade. The stable retail sale in September at 0.4% m/m did little to affect the trade with stock markets providing the main source of direction. UPDATE RBA Monetary statement cutes growth forecasts.
Oil & Gold (XAU) gold surged as the USD was sold across the board trading above $1750 resistance. Oil pushed up to recent high near $94 a level.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD Back to 1.4000
AUD/USD US Jobs to Impress?
|Currency||Sup 2||Sup 1||Spot||Res 1||Res 2|
Euro - 1.3825
Initial support at 1.3567 (61.8% retrace of 1.3146-1.4247) followed by 1.3346 (Oct 10 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3871 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.4171 (Oct 31 high)
Yen - 78.05
Initial support is located at 76.95 (61.8% retrace of 75.35-79.53) followed by 75.35 (Oct 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 78.99 (Nov 1 high) followed by 80.24 (Aug 4 high).
Pound - 1.6015
Initial support at 1.5825 (38.2% retrace of 1.5272-1.6167) followed by 1.5754 (Oct 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6097 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.6167 (Oct 31 high).
Australian Dollar - 1.0405
Initial support at 1.0203 (Oct 21 low) followed by the 1.0148 (Oct 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0567 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.0765 (Sep 1 high).
Gold - 1760
Initial support at 1722 (Nov 3 low) followed by 1714 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1772 (61.8% retrace of 1921.15-1532.72) followed by 1786 (Sept 22 high).
Oil - 93.50
Initial support at 92.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 89.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 94.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall