U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed, losing ground against the Euro and JPY but gaining against most risk currencies as stocks fell around the globe. Concerns about the upgrade of the Japanese Nuclear Crisis to the same level as Chernobyl was the main story. In US stocks, DJIA -117 points closing at 12263, S&P -10 points closing at 1314 and NASDAQ -26 points closing at 2744. Looking ahead, March Retail Sales are forecast at 0.5% vs. 1.0% previously.
The Euro (EUR) reversed from day lows in Asia under 1.4400 to rally back above 1.4500 in Europe. Traders ignored the risk aversion and reacted to comments China would be supporting Spanish debt. German ZEW fell 6.5 pts to 7.6 in Apr. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4376 and a high of 1.4521 before closing the day around 1.4480 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February Industrial Production forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.3% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the yen was strong testing Y83.50 twice during the day on concerns the nuclear crisis was worse than initially forecast and the market bought the safe haven. Intervention fears have subsided and USD weakness/strength has begun to set the tone for major. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.45 and a high of 84.60 before closing the day around 83.70 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) underperformed the rest of the market as March CPI fell to 4.0% vs. 4.4% previously. This caused the GBP/USD to fall to day lows in the lower 1.6200 region and EUR/GBP popped to multimonth highs above 0.8900. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6225 and a high of 1.6346 before closing the day at 1.6260 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Claimant Count forecast at -4.2k vs. -10k previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) the risk sensitive Aussie came under heavy selling pressure with the AUD/JPY falling sharply in Asia to Y87 and AUD/USD breaking briefly below 1.0400. The selling subsided and buyers reentered the market in force and the Aussie broke above 1.0500 at the height of Euro strength. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0450 and a high of 1.0551 before closing the day at 1.0526 in the New York session. UPDATE April Consumer Sentiment at +1.2%.
Oil & Gold (XAU) fell sharply again in the US session over $20 an ounce hitting stops under $1450. Overall trading with a low of USD$1443 and high of USD $1467 before ending the New York session at USD$1452 an ounce. Oil slumped heavily for a second day with Goldman Sachs putting out a correction warning. WTI Oil Closed -$3.67 at $106.25 a barrel.
|Currency||Sup 2||Sup 1||Spot||Res 1||Res 2|
Euro - 1.4460
Initial support at 1.4377 (Apr 12 low) followed by 1.4291 (Apr 8 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4561 (1.2867 plus 1.2588-1.4282) followed by 1.4579 (Jan 13, 2010 high)
Yen - 83.90
Initial support is located at 83.13 (Apr 1 low) followed by 82.37 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.16 (Apr 11 high) followed by 85.53 (Apr 6 High).
Pound - 1.6250
Initial support at 1.6183 (50% retrace of 1.5937-1.6428) followed by 1.6091 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6428 (Apr 8 high) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 2009 high).
Australian Dollar - 1.0450
Initial support at 1.0390 (Apr 12 low) followed by the 1.0315 (Apr 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0584 (Apr 8 high) followed by 1.0600 (1.0412 plus 1.0289-1.0508).
Gold - 1454
Initial support at 1436 (61.8% retrace of 1410.19-1478.18) followed by 1430 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1477 (1308.25 plus 0.618 of 1157.03-1431.25) followed by 1480 (Big Figure).
Oil - 106.00
Initial support at 105.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 103.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 108.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 110.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall