Daily Outlook - Libya Moves Closer to Civil War, Oil up $6 a barrel

By @ibtimes on

Libya Moves Closer to Civil War, Oil up $6 a barrel

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) holiday trading saw stock futures fall off in the US session on Middle Eastern concerns with Libya in focus with reports of large losses of civilian life. Oil is soaring in response up over $6 a barrel and still climbing. Looking ahead, December Case Shiller House Prices forecast at -0.5% vs. 1% previously.

The Euro (EUR) held up better than most in the risk off trading environment as German IFO improved to record highs in February to 111.2 vs. 110.3 previously. Support was found just under 1.3700 and remained stable in the US session. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3646 and a high of 1.3727 before closing the day around 1.3680 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Consumer Sentiment forecast at 5.8 vs. 5.7 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was supported on safe have flows as the market sold back recent rallies in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY on spreading middle eastern uprisings. USD/JPY found support at Y83 and remained close to the figure all day. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.99 and a high of 83.55 before closing the day around 83.15 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) eased with the USD strength but the selling was mild with the US away and the sentiment bullish towards the Pound in recent days. Support at 1.6200 was strong and Cable stayed close to the figure throughout the day. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6202 and a high of 1.6267 before closing the day at 1.6220 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was unable to find support from the large move higher in Oil and Gold as safe haven demand for USD overwhelmed. Stock markets are still a bigger factor in the setting the direction for the AUD/USD so US stocks today will be closely watched. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0071 and a high of 1.0160 before closing the day at 1.0080 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) surged back above $1400 on safe haven demand for the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$1388 and high of USD $1410 before ending the New York session at USD$1406 an ounce. Oil has one of its biggest rallies in history on the back of the thin trading conditions with US markets on holiday and uncertainty caused from the multiple middle eastern uprisings. WTI Oil Closed +$6.10 at $97.60 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3463

1.3537

1.3680

1.3736

1.3825

USD/JPY

82.34

82.89

83.10

83.75

83.98

GBP/USD

1.5987

1.6076

1.6230

1.6279

1.6299

AUD/USD

0.9960

1.0018

1.0085

1.0152

1.0189

XAU/USD

1368.00

1374

1408

1417

1424

OIL/USD

91.50

95.00

97.30

98.50

100.00

Euro - 1.3680

Initial support at 1.3537 (Feb 17 low) followed by 1.3463 (Feb 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3736 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.3825 (Feb 3 High)

Yen - 83.10

Initial support is located at 82.89 (38.2% retrace of 81.13-83.98) followed by 82.34 (Feb 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.75 (Feb 17 high) followed by 83.98 (Feb 16 High).

Pound - 1.6230

Initial support at 1.6076 (Feb 17 low) followed by 1.5987 (Feb 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6279 (Feb 3 high) followed by 1.6279 (Feb 3 High).

Australian Dollar - 1.0085

Initial support at 1.0018 (Feb 17 low) followed by the 0.9960 (Feb 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0152 (Feb 09 high) followed by 1.0189 (Feb 9 high).

Gold - 1408

Initial support at 1374 (Feb 17 low) followed by 1368 (Feb 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 1417 (Jan 4 high) followed by 1424 (Jan 3 high).

Oil - 97.30

Initial support at 95.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 91.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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