U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a combination of dovish ECB and crashing commodities helped the USD surge yesterday in a major reversal of fortunes. Weekly Jobless Claims soared to 474k vs. 410k forecast and created an air of uncertainty about the strength of the US job market ahead of Aprils Non Farm Payrolls tonight. In US stocks, DJIA -139 points closing at 12584, S&P -12 points closing at 1335 and NASDAQ -13 points closing at 2814. Looking ahead, April Non Farm Payrolls forecast at 200k and Unemployment rate forecast unchanged at 8.8%.

The Euro (EUR) when the ECB left out the term 'vigilance' the EUR/USD instantly fell through 1.4700 and continued to slump towards 1.4500 as stocks/commodity selling adding to the downside pressure. The ECB held at 1.25% as forecast but the market now doesn't see a rate hike in June as a possibility. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4512 and a high of 1.4900 before closing the day around 1.4550 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Industrial Output forecast at 0.5% vs. 1.6% previously m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) risk aversion and weak US data made the Yen the safe haven of choice with traders pushing the major through Y80 briefly before buyers emerged.  Bargain hunters on the Crosses especially the AUD/JPY came out after the most pairs have fallen significantly in last 4 days. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 79.57 and a high of 80.50 before closing the day around 80.30 in the New York session.  

The Sterling (GBP) sold off with the rest of the market but was able to take advantage of the EURO slump to push EUR/GBP from fresh month highs nearly 2 big figures lower. The BOE held at 0.5% as expected but did not release a statement. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6362 and a high of 1.6545 before closing the day at 1.6395 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Governor King Speaks

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was crushed lower with longs all fleeing for the exits with the 10% drops in Oil and sharp drops in Gold and Silver leaving commodity currency battered. Support was found under 1.0600 and if stocks can turn around then bargain hunters may emerge given we traded at 1.1000 on 4 days ago. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0560 and a high of 1.0748 before closing the day at 1.0610 in the New York session. UPDATE RBA MONETARY STATEMENT UPGRADES EMPLYOMENT

Oil & Gold (XAU) was sold aggressively after breaking $1500 support to plunge to $1460 region. Overall trading with a low of USD$1462 and high of USD $1522 before ending the New York session at USD$1471 an ounce. In a record sell off, Crude Oil was almost in free fall down $10 a barrel at one stage, breaking below $100 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed -$9.44 at $99.80 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4350

1.4500

1.4585

1.4900

1.4940

USD/JPY

78.83

80.00

80.50

80.69

81.28

GBP/USD

1.6308

1.6388

1.6420

1.6574

1.6661

AUD/USD

1.0443

1.0519

1.0700

1.0878

1.0953

XAU/USD

1450.00

1579

1487

1500

1551

OIL/USD

98.00



100.00

100.80

105.00

108.00





Euro - 1.4585

Initial support at 1.4500 (Big Figure Support) followed by 1.4350 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4900 (May 5 high) followed by 1.4940 (May 4 high)



Yen - 80.50

Initial support is located at 80.00 (Big Figure support) followed by 79..79 (Big Figure Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.69 (May 5 low) followed by 81.28 (May 3 High).

Pound - 1.6420

Initial support at 1.6388 (61.8% retrace of 1.6166-1.6747) followed by 1.6308 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6574 (May 4 high) followed by 1.6661 (May 3 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0700

Initial support at 1.0519 (Apr 20 low) followed by the 1.0443 (Apr 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0878 (May 4 high) followed by 1.0953 (May 3 high).

Gold - 1487

Initial support at 1479 (50% retrace of 1381.22-1577.57) followed by 1450 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 1500 (Big figure resistance) followed by 1551 (May 3 high).



Oil - 100.80

Initial support at 100.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 105.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 108.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall