U.S. Dollar Trading (US) data was weak with June CPI falling -0.2% vs. -0.1% previously and July UoM Consumer Sentiment falling to 63.8 vs. 71.5 previously. The European Bank stress tests dominated the European session but generated little market movement with exhaustion setting in ahead of the weekend. In US stocks, DJIA +45 points closing at 12479, S&P +7 points closing at 1316 and NASDAQ +27 points closing at 2789. Looking ahead, July NAHB Housing Market Index forecast at 14 vs. 13 previously.

The Euro (EUR) was contained to the 1.4100 figure with the EU Bank stress test showing 8 failing banks being countered by the passing of the Italian Austerity budget. Ongoing concerns about the future of Greece and the EU as a whole is putting a negative tinge to the Euro with traders cautious to call an end to the saga. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3949 and a high of 1.4192 before closing the day around 1.4139 in the New York session.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market went to sleep Friday in a 20 pip range from Y79 to Y79.20. Crosses were also stable with the EUR/JPY pivoting the Y112 level after hitting lows under Y110 during the week. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 78.87 and a high of 79.27 before closing the day around 79.05 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday Monday.

The Sterling (GBP) held onto the 1.6100 level but was unable to move higher with the Negative US data and subdued trading on Friday. EUR/GBP is under 0.8800 and could fall further with much of the Pound weakness already priced in and Euro issues still unfolding. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6075 and a high of 1.6174 before closing the day at 1.6130 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was punched lower in European trade on the negative sentiment as Moody's put the US Rating on negative watch. The US session saw modest stock gains however and the AUD stabilized in the low 1.0600 region. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0617 and a high of 1.0745 before closing the day at 1.0650 in the New York session. UPDATE Q2 New Zealand CPI is strong at 5.3% vs. 4.5% forecast.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold came under profit taking pressure before rebounding back above $1590 to close at record highs. Overall trading with a low of USD$1575 and high of USD $1593 before ending the New York session at USD$1593 an ounce. Rallied hard after pulling back on Thursday to reclaim $97 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed +$1.55 at $97.25 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3837

1.3951

1.4065

1.4295

1.4375

USD/JPY

76.25

78.00

79.00

80.38

80.83

GBP/USD

1.5781

1.5906

1.6100

1.6254

1.6300

AUD/USD

1.0520

1.0580

1.0600

1.0802

1.0889

XAU/USD

1564.00

1572

1595

1600

1628

OIL/USD

92.50



95.00

97.20

98.00

99.00



Euro - 1.4065

Initial support at 1.3951 (Jul 13 low) followed by 1.3837 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4295 (61.8% retrace of 1.4578-1.3837) followed by 1.4375 (Jul 7 high)



Yen - 79.00

Initial support is located at 78.00 (Big Figure support) followed by 76.25 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 80.38 (Jul 12 high) followed by 80.83 (Jul 11 high).

Pound - 1.6100

Initial support at 1.5906 (Jul 13 low) followed by 1.5781 (Jul 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6254 (61.8% retrace of 1.6547-1.5781) followed by 1.6300 (Big Figure).



Australian Dollar - 1.0600

Initial support at 1.0580 (Jul 13 low) followed by the 1.0520 (Jun 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0802 (Jul 14 low) followed by 1.0889 (May 11 high).

Gold - 1595

Initial support at 1572 (Jul 14 low) followed by 1564 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1600 (Key Resistance) followed by 1628 (1462.45 plus 0.618 of 1577.57-1308.25).



Oil - 97.20

Initial support at 95.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 99.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall