U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a rare good day with profit taking on most markets sending the USD higher. The main catalyst was the sharp moves lower in Oil and Silver. Stocks we also mildly down and the safe haven USD and Yen benefitted from this. In US stocks, DJIA -0 points closing at 12807, S&P -4 points closing at 1356 and NASDAQ -22 points closing at 2841. Looking ahead, April ADP Employment forecast at 198k vs. 201k previously. April ISM Services forecast at 57.4 vs. 57.3 previously.

The Euro (EUR) found support in Europe after hitting day lows near 1.4750 but the market was unable to hold onto the bounce when US stocks turned south and commodity losses piled up. March PPI increased at 0.7% vs. 0.6% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4755 and a high of 1.4891 before closing the day around 1.4815 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Retail Sales forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.1% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke below Y81 but quickly found support as the two safe havens competed for strength yesterday. EUR/JPY moved below Y120 but the market remained close to the level with buyers still lurking. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.68 and a high of 81.26 before closing the day around 80.95 in the New York session.  

The Sterling (GBP) was very weak after the sharp fall in April Factory PMI to 54.6 vs. 56.7 previously. Cable fell through 1.6500 on the back of this with EUR/GBP pushing above 0.9000. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6463 and a high of 1.6647 before closing the day at 1.6608 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Construction PMI forecast at 55.5 vs. 56.4 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under heavy selling pressure with Silver and Oil pushing the commodity currency lower. The RBA held at 4.75% with the central bank still concerned about inflation but not indicating a rate hike was in the next couple of months. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0835 and a high of 1.0935 before closing the day at 1.0850 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) the profit taking continued with traders selling into bounces. Overall trading with a low of USD$1527 and high of USD $1551 before ending the New York session at USD$1536 an ounce. Oil finally broke support and plummeted lower to $110 support. WTI Oil Closed -$2.47 at $111.05 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4600

1.4633

1.4800

1.4905

1.5000

USD/JPY

80.00

80.69

81.00

81.69

82.28

GBP/USD

1.6387

1.6432

1.6470

1.6661

1.6747

AUD/USD

1.0677

1.0775

1.0810

1.1000

1.1191

XAU/USD

1501.00

1524

1532

1577

1600

OIL/USD

108.00



110.00

110.50

113.00

115.00





Euro - 1.4800

Initial support at 1.4633 (April 27 Low) followed by 1.4600 (Big Figure Support). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4905 (Dec 7 2009 high) followed by 1.5000 (Big Figure Resistance)



Yen - 81.00

Initial support is located at 80.69 (Mar 21 low) followed by 80.00 (Big Figure Support). Initial resistance is now at 81.69 (May 2 high) followed by 82.28 (Apr 28 High).

Pound - 1.6470

Initial support at 1.6432 (April 26 low) followed by 1.6387 (Apr 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6661 (May 3 high) followed by 1.6747 (Apr 28 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0810

Initial support at 1.0775 (Apr 27 low) followed by the 1.0677 (Apr 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.1000 (big figure resistance) followed by 1.1191 (0.9706 plus 0.8771-1.0256).

Gold - 1532

Initial support at 1524 (Apr 28 low) followed by 1501 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1577 (May 2 high) followed by 1600 (Big level resistance).



Oil - 110.50

Initial support at 110.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 108.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 113.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 115.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall