Daily Outlook - Markets Quiet Monday, Big week Ahead

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) range bound trading was seen in most markets with FX no exception and many pairs kept to 50 pips ranges during the day. The USD benefitted from profit taking after the heavy selling on Friday. Stock ended slightly up with positive sentiment still evident ahead of 4 central bank meetings this week. In US stocks, DJIA +23 points closing at 12400, S&P +1 points closing at 1332 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2789. Looking ahead, March Services ISM forecast at 59.5 vs. 59.7 previously. Also ahead, FOMC Minutes today.

The Euro (EUR) kept to a small range consolidating the gains on Friday ahead of the key ECB meeting on Thursday. February PPI was still high at 6.6% y/y. Also of note was the drop in EU investor confidence to 14.2 vs. 17.1 previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4191 and a high of 1.4270 before closing the day around 1.4220 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February Retail Sales forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.7% previously y/y.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) found support under Y84 to finish just above the figure on a strong footing. The pullbacks have been very subdued and a test of Y85 is likely in the coming months. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY experienced slight profit taking as well but are still supported on dips. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.84 and a high of 84.50 before closing the day around 84.20 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) managed two attempts higher but failed at 1.6180 resistance and pulled back to opening levels. March Construction PMI was only slightly less at 56.5 vs. 56.4 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6105 and a high of 1.6180 before closing the day at 1.6130 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March PMI Services forecast at 52.6 vs. 52.6 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) suffered more than most, profit taking from very lofty levels above 1.0400 early on Monday. The Market is still very bullish the Aussie but it also already very long after recent months of buying. 1.0500 is the target of many local banks and could be strong resistance. Also adding to the profit taking was the upcoming RBA decision today with event risk prompting traders to book profits early. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0334 and a high of 1.0419 before closing the day at 1.0360 in the New York session. Looking ahead, RBA Rate Decision forecast to hold at 4.75%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was well supported grinding higher for most of the day to $1440 resistance. Overall trading with a low of USD$1429 and high of USD $1439 before ending the New York session at USD$1437 an ounce. Was up a small amount with middle east protests spreading to many states. WTI Oil Closed +$0.53 at $108.47 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4021

1.4062

1.4190

1.4282

1.4373

USD/JPY

82.57

83.13

84.30

84.73

85.62

GBP/USD

1.5873

1.5937

1.6115

1.6180

1.6267

AUD/USD

1.0205

1.0269

1.0320

1.0400

1.0425

XAU/USD

1386.00

1410

1438

1439

1450

OIL/USD

105.00

108.00

108.30

110.00

111.00

Euro - 1.4190

Initial support at 1.4062 (Apr 1 low) followed by 1.4021 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4282 (Nov 4 high) followed by 1.4373 (76.4% retrace of 1.5144-1.1877)

Yen - 84.30

Initial support is located at 83.13 (Apr 1 low) followed by 82.57 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 84.73 (April 1 high) followed by 85.62 (50% retrace of 94.99-76.25).

Pound - 1.6115

Initial support at 1.5937 (Mar 28 low) followed by 1.5873 (50% retrace of 1.5345-1.6401). Initial resistance is now at 1.61680 (April 4 high) followed by 1.6267 (Mar 24 high).

Australian Dollar - 1.0320

Initial support at 1.0269 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 1.0205 (Mar 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0400 (Big Figure Resistance) followed by 1.0425 (0.9706 plus 0.9537-1.0256).

Gold - 1438

Initial support at 1410 (Mar 28 low) followed by 1386 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1439 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1450 (Round Number).

Oil - 108.50

Initial support at 108.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 108.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 110.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 111.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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