U.S. Dollar Trading (US) with stock markets closed and little data released, the market was very quiet although profit taking did see the USD on the front foot. The NonFarm Payrolls is the key data release this week and could set the tone for the rest of the month. In US stocks, Markets Closed for Independence day. Looking ahead, May Factory Orders forecast at 1% vs. -1.2% previously.

The Euro (EUR) dipped from highs on Friday and early Monday on comments from S&P that a Greek Debt rollover plan put forth from French banks would still constitute a selective default. The news sent the Euro back below 1.4500 before stabilizing and recovering in quiet US trade. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4494 and a high of 1.4569 before closing the day around 1.4545 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June PMI forecast at 54.2.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) stayed inside a tight band near the upper end of its recent Y80-81 range. EUR/JPY saw some action when the S&P news broke but most crosses are on a strong footing and being bought on the dip. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.52 and a high of 80.88 before closing the day around 80.75 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke with the rest of the market for a rare test higher above 1.6100 whilst other majors did very little. This saw the EUR/GBP come under selling pressure for the first time in recent sessions testing 0.9000 during the European session. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6052 and a high of 1.6142 before closing the day at 1.6090 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June PMI Services forecasts at 53.5 vs. 53.8.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under heavy selling pressure in Asia after economic data missed with May Retail Sales dropping -0.6% vs. 0.3% forecast and Building Permits dropped -7.9% vs. -0.5% forecast. Support was found near 1.0700 and the pair pared losses in the US session. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0710 and a high of 1.0787 before closing the day at 1.0745 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold grinded higher for most of the day towards the key $1500 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1489 and high of USD $1597 before ending the New York session at USD$1496 an ounce. Oil did very little with the US traders away. WTI Oil Closed +$0.06 at $95.05 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4333

1.4427

1.4550

1.4653

1.4697

USD/JPY

80.00

80.29

80.80

81.33

81.63

GBP/USD

1.5822

1.5970

1.6075

1.6200

1.6263

AUD/USD

1.0520

1.0668

1.0740

1.0790

1.0889

XAU/USD

1471.00

1485

1490

1526

1549

OIL/USD

92.50



95.00

95.10

96.50

98.00



Euro - 1.4550

Initial support at 1.4427 (Jun 30 low) followed by 1.4333 (Jun 29 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4653 (Jun 9 high) followed by 1.4697 (Jun 7 high)



Yen - 80.80

Initial support is located at 80.29 (Jun 27 low) followed by 80.00 (Key Support). Initial resistance is now at 81.33 (Jun 2 high) followed by 81.63 (76.4% retrace of 82.23-79.7).

Pound - 1.6075

Initial support at 1.5970 (Jun 29 low) followed by 1.5822 (Jan 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6200 (Psych Resistance) followed by 1.6263 (Jun 22 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0740

Initial support at 1.0668 (Jun 30 low) followed by the 1.0520 (Jun 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0790 (Jul 1 high) followed by 1.0889 (May 11 high).

Gold - 1490

Initial support at 1485 (76.4% retrace of 1462.45-1558.25) followed by 1471 (May 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1526 (June 24 high) followed by 1523 (Jun 23 high).



Oil - 95.10

Initial support at 95.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 96.50 (Intraday resistance) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall